US real estate investment trusts (REITs) and stocks posted the strongest returns for the major asset classes in October — by wide margins.
Macro Briefing: 1 November 2021
* Biden’s plan for US to lead in battling climate crisis faces big hurdles
* COP26 climate talks come with major implications for investing
* US Covid-19 cases down 58% from most recent peak
* Covid-19 pandemic accelerated baby-boomer retirements
* Treasury Sec. Yellen downplays flattening yield curve; says recovery is solid
* China’s factory output contracted for a second month in October
* Japan’s new prime minister plans to redistribute wealth via “new capitalism”
* Consumer prices and wages rose in September at fastest pace in decades
* Consumer spending continued to increase in September:
Book Bits: 30 October 2021
Andrew Ross
Essay by author via Orlando Sentinel
The affordable housing crisis is about to become an emergency. According to a recent Zillow forecast, by December, the typical renter in the U.S. will be paying landlords more than 30% of their pretax income. That’s the official threshold for “housing-cost burdened.”
With housing prices and rents still climbing, and eviction moratoriums largely ended, millions of these tenants are at risk of becoming homeless.
Desperately Seeking Yield: 29 October 2021
Finding a respectable yield remains challenging, but it’s starting to get easier, if only slightly. As we check in on our standard ETF proxies for the major asset classes, the opportunities for yield-hungry investors is looking up, relative to our previous update in April.
Macro Briefing: 29 October 2021
* Biden arrives in Europe for COP26 climate summit
* Dems’ infrastructure spending package still in limbo as October comes to a close
* Apple and Amazon earnings disappoint
* Treasury Sec. Yellen: spending bills will be anti-inflationary by lowering key costs
* Eurozone inflation rises above 4%, creating more pressure for rate hike
* US jobless claims fell again last week, reach new pandemic low
* Market starting to price in Fed rate hikes for 2022
* Pending home sales for US post surprising drop for September
* US GDP growth slowed to 2% in Q3–smallest gain since expansion started:
Transitory Inflation Outlook Remains Challenged
It’s premature to rule out the possibility that US inflation will peak in the months ahead, but recent projections that the peaking is imminent and will reflect a sharp decline in pricing pressure now looks unlikely.
Macro Briefing: 28 October 2021
* Quick deal on Dem’s social-spending agenda falls apart
* US reportedly training troops in Taiwan
* Top US general says China’s hypersonic weapons test is “very concerncing”
* One-third of China’s property developers will struggle to repay debts
* Chip shortage takes toll on profits at GM and Ford
* US economic growth projected to slow in Q3, but a rebound is expected
* US trade deficit for goods surged in September as exports fell
* New US orders for durable goods fell in September at headline level:
Energy Still Leads US Equity Sectors By Wide Margin In 2021
The reboot of energy stocks rolls on in the year-to-date sector horse race, based on a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Oct. 26).
Macro Briefing: 27 October 2021
* Democrats unveil plan for 15% minimum corporate tax
* Democrats are considering a novel capital-gains tax on billionaires
* Microsoft and Alphabet beat expectations for revenue growth
* US is now the leader in bitcoin mining after China crackdown
* Treasury market’s 5-year inflation forecast rises to 2.99% for the first time
* Hot US housing market may be starting to cool, based on S&P Case-Shiller Index
* New home sales rebounded to six-month high in September
* US Consumer Confidence rises in October, following three months of decline:
Outlier Risk, Part I
Would you know an outlier if you saw one? They’re everywhere and easy to spot, or so one can argue. But casual observation is one thing and shouldn’t be confused with robust statistical definitions.