Calculating the history of drawdown (DD) for assets is common in the investment community, but the risk metric also provides useful information for analyzing economic data. In particular, monitoring peak-to-trough declines can offer relatively reliable estimates for turning points and estimating the probability that a decline is set to end or that a new downturn has started.

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* Biden’s Afghan exit strategy rocked by two deadly bombings in Kabul
* US vows to continue Afghanistan evacuation after deadly Kabul airport attack
* More terrorist attacks in Kabul are likely, US and allies warn
* Supreme Court blocks Biden’s eviction moratorium
* Tropical Storm Ida may become major hurricane as it heads toward New Orleans
* Three Fed officials say it’s time to start trimming central bank’s asset purchases
* China eyes ban of US IPOs for firms with large amounts of consumer data
* US Q2 GDP growth revised up fractionally to 6.2%
* US jobless claims edge higher, remaining stuck in recent range:

Shares in China continue to post sharp year-to-date losses vs. an otherwise upside bias for global stocks, based on a set of exchange-traded funds tracking the world’s major equity regions through yesterday’s close (Aug. 25).

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* Terror threat complicates US evacuation plans in Afghanistan
* Global supply chain constraints expected to persist into 2022
* South Korea is first major Asian economy to raise interest rates in pandemic
* Western Digital-Kioxia merger will further reorder global chip industry
* Rethinking gold’s allure after Palantir $50 million purchase of bullion
* German consumer sentiment weakens as inflation and Covid-19 cases rise
* US core capital goods were flat in July–first no-growth month since February:

Energy stocks, various commodities and shares in several emerging market nations dominate the deepest losses for our rough estimate of deep value for nearly 150 ETFs.

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* House Democrats break impasse in push to pass $3.5 trillion budget bill
* Supreme Court reinstates Trump-era wait-in-Mexico asylum policy
* China reopens world’s third-busiest port after two-week shutdown
* Extreme heat is expected to be more common, according to climate forecast
* German business confidence slips for second consecutive month in August
* Richmond Fed Mfg Index slips in August but still indicates strong expansion
* New US home sales increased in July after three straight monthly declines:

Earlier this month, hints emerged that the recent surge in US inflation pressures was ebbing. New data released in the two weeks since that update strengthen the case for calling a peak, albeit only slightly, based on revised numbers for CapitalSpectator.com’s Inflation Trend Index (ITI).

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* Biden’s economic agenda at risk amid feud among House Democrats
* Emergency meeting of G-7 leaders planned re: chaotic situation in Afghanistan
* Full federal approval of Pfizer’s vaccine triggers new vaccine mandates
* Heat is taking a tool on US crops, pushing up prices
* Chinese ride-hailing giant Didi halts plan in UK and Europe
* Existing home sales increased for second month in July
* US housing market, although strong, is showing signs of starting to cool
* Chicago Fed National Activity Index strengthened in July
* US growth slows in August as Composite PMI drops to 8-month low:

Investment-grade US fixed income provided relief from the losses that otherwise weighed on the major asset classes last week, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.

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* Firefight at Kabul airport extends chaos in Afghanistan
* House Dems return from summer recess to advance ambitious domestic agenda
* Fed bond-buying stimulus in focus at this week’s Jackson Hole summit
* Eurozone economic activity is strong in August, near 15-yr high via survey data
* UK economic growth slows to a 6mo low in Aug via PMI survey data
* Computer-ship shortage remains a headwind for the economy
* US and int’l data releases falling short of forecasts at accelerating pace: