* Biden advises US citizens to immediately leave Ukraine as Russia threat lurks
* Canadian trucker protests disrupt US auto factories
* Jobless claims in US fell again last week, sliding for third straight week
* Fed funds futures pricing in high odds of a 50-basis-point rate hike in March
* US consumer inflation rose faster than expected in Jan, reaching 40-year high
* 10-year Treasury yield tops 2.0% for first time since July 2019:
As the Federal Reserve prepares to start raising interest rates, history lurks in the background amid an inflation surge that’s remained more persistent than expected.
* Fed’s Mester says each policy meeting ‘in play’ for rate hikes this year
* Russia says it will begin 10 days of military exercises with neighbor Belarus
* White House rolls out $5 billion plan to fund electric vehicle chargers
* Did US payrolls really increase in January? Maybe not
* Supply-chain issues take a toll on the renewable energy industry
* Disney’s earnings rebound amid growth in streaming service and theme parks
* US 10yr-2yr Treasury yield spread slips to smallest gap in well over a year:
The playing field is riddled with imperfect information in real time, long response lags, unclear relationships between economic and financial variables, and a hefty dose of uncertainty linked to behavioral risk. Throw in a high degree of geopolitical risk at the moment vis-a-vis the Ukraine crisis for good measure. Modeling how all this interacts in the months ahead for purposes of setting monetary policy is like trying to grasp all the possible moves in a game of chess.
* Germany’s chancellor says Russia would pay ‘very high price’ for Ukraine invasion
* Russia raises doubts about Ukraine crisis de-escalation efforts
* Supply chain disruptions to ease in 2H:2022, predicts shipping giant Maersk
* Ottawa’s protests inspire similar demonstrations beyond Canada’s borders
* US reports record trade deficit for 2021
* Nissan will end nearly all new gasoline engine development amid shift to electric
* Savers not expected to benefit from Fed rate hikes in near term
* Small US business owners say inflation is most important business problem
* US 10yr Treasury yield rises to 1.96%, highest since mid-2019:
Early on in the current run of accelerating inflation there were forecasts that the increase was “transitory.” Then the outlook shifted to estimates that the peak would top out but last longer than previously expected. Now the question is whether inflation’s run higher is on track to continue?
* Putin hints at possible thaw in Ukraine tensions after meeting France’s Macron
* Biden: Germany’s gas line from Russia won’t operate if Putin invades Ukraine
* Goldman’s head of commodities research says “We’re out of everything”
* Demand rising for dividend stocks amid outlook for slower growth, rising rates
* Hedging on US stocks at highest level in nearly two years
* Oil giant BP reports highest earnings in 8 years as commodity prices surge
* Meta is considering shutting down Facebook and Instagram in Europe
* Baltic Dry Index, a leading economic indicator, is close to lowest level in a year:
Shares in emerging markets rallied for the first time in three weeks, posting the best weekly performance for the major asset classes through Friday’s close (Feb. 7), based on a set of ETFs.
* German Chancellor Scholz says Russia will pay high price if Ukraine invaded
* Biden to meet with German Chancellor Scholz today in White House
* Germany urged to ‘wake up’ to Ukraine-Russia threat
* French president Macron to meet Putin in effort to avert Ukraine war
* US labor shortages expected to continue through second half of 2022
* Gold has been relatively steady amid recently volatility in US dollar and bonds
* US set to unveil new Asia-Pacific economic strategy to counter China
* Germany’s industrial production declined unexpectedly in December
* Two January estimates of US private payrolls show sharply divergent results:
Rupert Russell
Review via Publishers Weekly
Documentary filmmaker and sociologist Russell debuts with a harrowing look at the disastrous consequences of financial speculation. Contending that recent political and social turmoil in Iraq, Ukraine, Venezuela, and other countries has been triggered by irrational price shocks that don’t correspond to actual issues of supply and demand, Russell details how small market movements are amplified and manipulated by hedge fund managers and commodities traders seeking to deliver consistent profits regardless of real-world conditions. Among a plethora of disturbing case studies, Russell describes how oil wealth generated by market speculation fueled corruption and then caused ruinous hyperinflation in Venezuela; explains how artificially low coffee prices, climate change, and agricultural debt led to a surge in migration from Guatemala toward the U.S.; notes that the terrorist organization al-Shabaab drove down cattle prices in Somalia during a 2010–2011 drought in order to compel desperate farmers to join their ranks; and contends that Western governments suspending “the rules of the game” to prop up their economies during the Covid-19 pandemic only underscores how much arbitrary control markets and prices have over the global economy.