Non-traditional metrics may provide a better way of anticipating a burstring market bubble, reports The Economist: “Surges in Googling do a much better job than valuations at forecasting an imminent fall, as the chart’s third column shows. In each case the price of the stock, basket, fund or cryptocurrency dropped considerably over the 12 months following the peak in internet searches. Moreover, for the ARKK fund, bitcoin, GameStop and SPACs, prices spiked at almost exactly the same time as Googling did.”
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 02 December 2025
Long-term expectations for the Global Market Index (GMI) are holding at a 7%-plus annualized total return, based on data through November. The forecast has been stable at this pace in recent months, ticking up slightly from last month’s estimate.
Macro Briefing: 2 December 2025
US manufacturing contracted for a ninth straight month in November, based on the ISM Manufacturing Index. “The manufacturing sector continues to be weighed down by the unpredictable tariffs landscape,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets.
Major Asset Classes | November 2025 | Performance Review
Most of the major asset classes rose in November, extending the previous-month’s broad-based gains, based on a set of ETF proxies. US real estate investment trusts led the way, posting a robust gain last month.
Macro Briefing: 1 December 2025
US consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online for the Black Friday shopping spree. The sales level marks a 9.1% rise from last year, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks e-commerce. Spending increased despite weak consumer sentiment, according to a new CBS News/YouGov poll.
Book Bits: 29 November 2025
● Capitalism: A Global History
Sven Beckert
Review via The New Yorker
Beckert identifies “two diametrically opposed stories”: capitalism either deserves credit for the rise in living standards and longevity or stands condemned as an “insatiable demon.” His book addresses “a deep frustration that so many of the stories we tell about capitalism are incomplete and sometimes just plain wrong.” He invites readers to study capitalism “with a sense of wonder, surprise, and astonishment—not because it is ‘good’ or ‘bad’ but because of its world-shaping power, and because understanding it is crucial to navigating our shared future.”
In the course of the next eleven hundred pages, this sales pitch starts to seem a little disingenuous. By the time Beckert arrives at our “neoliberal” era, he has given himself over to open lamentation: everything has been ruthlessly priced, “even human reproduction.”
Happy Thanksgiving!
The Capital Spectator is leaning into the holiday trend and making an early exit from the usual routine. The standard fare resumes on Monday, Dec. 1. Cheers!
Revived Expectations For Rate Cut Keep Bond Market Humming
Investor sentiment on the outlook for another rate cut has been volatile lately, but comments from Federal Reserve officials in recent days has turned the tide back in favor of the doves.
Macro Briefing: 25 November 2025
Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Monday said he favored cutting interest rates at the Fed’s Dec. 10 policy meeting. Since the last Fed meeting, “most of the private sector and anecdotal data that we’ve gotten is that nothing has really changed. The labor market is soft. It’s continuing to weaken,” he said. The 10-year Treasury yield on Monday fell to 4.03%, the lowest level so far this month.
Recession Risk Is Low, But Softer Labor Market Raises Red Flags
The delayed third-quarter GDP report will, presumably, be published eventually, but it’s ancient history at this point. The focus has turned to an array of data from various sources for October and November. A consensus view is still evolving, but the main takeaway at the moment is that recession risk still appears low so far in Q4.