Small-Caps Continue To Rally: The broad US equity market stumbled over the five trading days through Friday, Nov., 20, but shares of small companies ignored the setback and powered higher for a second straight week.
Fat Tails Everywhere? Profiling Extreme Returns: Part IV
One of the biggest challenges for managing tail-risk expectations is the limitation on clarity imposed by history. For most markets, the post-World War II era provides the primary if not the only dataset. But expanding the opportunity set into some asset classes further reduces the available track record. Think junk bonds and emerging markets, for instance. How can we solve this challenge? Simulations are the first choice in the toolkit.
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Macro Briefing: 20 November 2020
CDC asks Americans to stay home on Thanksgiving: NYT
Treasury Sec. asks Fed to return unused emergency lending funds: PLTC
Georgia recount reaffirms Biden win in the state: AP
Afghanistan braces for acceleration of drawdown in US troops: WSJ
World trade rebounded but is vulnerable to resurgent coronavirus: WTO
High-profile bond defaults in China worry investors: CNBC
Early Christmas shopping lifted UK retail sales in Oct: FT
US existing home sales rose in Oct–highest level since 2006: CNBC
US jobless claims surprised analysts and accelerated last week: CNBC
Revisiting First Principles For Portfolio Design: Part I
Even in a pandemic, the foundation for building and managing investment portfolios persevere. That’s easy to overlook amid a firehose of new investment products, roller coaster swings in markets and a global health crisis. Although there’s (still) no silver bullet for success, at least there’s an obvious, productive starting point: the “market” portfolio.
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Macro Briefing: 19 November 2020
US coronavirus deaths continue to rise sharply: PLTCO
States with fewest restrictions suffer worst virus outbreaks: NYT
Oxford Covid vaccine trials shows encouraging results for older adults: CNBC
Georgia recount expected to reaffirm that Biden won state: RTRS
Asia-Pacific countries eye freer trade policy with Biden administration: RTRS
Today’s US jobless claims report likely to show new applications remain high: WSJ
ECB president pledges robust stimulus in Dec to support Eurozone economy: BBG
Why is bitcoin surging? MW
Trump’s last stand to overturn Biden win: Electoral College delegates: PLTCO
Single-family home construction in US rose more than forecast in Oct: BBG
Relatively Moderate Growth Expected For US GDP In Q4
After record-shattering changes in gross domestic product in the previous two quarters, US economic activity in the fourth quarter appears on track to deliver a comparatively “normal” increase, according to recent nowcasts of gross domestic product (GDP) from several sources.
Macro Briefing: 18 November 2020
Fed chairman: resurgent virus is a threat to the economy: WSJ
Trump orders faster drawdown of US troops in Afghanistan and Iraq: BBG
Trump fires Dept of Homeland cybersecurity chief: CNBC
Data suggest Covid-19 immunity lasts for years: NYT
Controversial Fed nominee Judy Shelton is blocked in Senate: CNBC
US FDA approves first home-testing kit for coronavirus: RTRS
Industrial output in US rebounded in October: MW
US home builder sentiment rises to a new record high in Nov: RD
US import prices were surprisingly weak in October: CNBC
US retail sales growth slowed in October: RTRS
US Equity Sector Rotation In Progress?
Traders appear to be placing new bets on the reflation trade through equity sector bets in energy, basic materials and industrials stocks, based on a set of exchange traded funds. It’s too early to know if this is a sustainable shift, but the change in tone in recent days is too hard to ignore.
Macro Briefing: 17 November 2020
Trump considered bombing Iran last week: NYT
Trump blocks incoming Biden staff on multiple fronts: PLTC
Several US states impose new Covid-19 restrictions: Reuters
Moderna says its coronavirus vaccine is 94.5% effective: CNN
Pfizer to launch pilot delivery program for vaccine in four US states: RTRS
Judy Shelton’s Fed confirmation in doubt as GOP support wanes: MW
Amazon launches online pharmacy: CNBC
US retail sales expected to post 6th monthly gain in today’s Oct report: WSJ
Hungary and Poland block European Union budget: BBC
NY Fed Mfg Index: manufacturing sector growth slowed in November: MSTAR
US stock market (S&P 500) rallies to new record high:
Property Shares Led Broad Rally In Global Markets Last Week
Real estate shares surged last week, in the US and abroad, posting the strongest gains for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.