The value factor has fallen on hard times in recent years, prompting debate about whether this risk premium can recover as technology-fueled growth stocks eat the world. The counterpoint is that value and growth have long traded leadership positions and eventually value wins the race. Is it different this time? Unclear. While we’re waiting for Mr. Market to render a verdict, let’s explore the value-growth dance through a rolling-one-year-return lens for perspective.
Macro Briefing: 12 November 2020
US coronavirus cases and hospitalizations continue to accelerate: CNN
Biden advisor considers new lockdown to control pandemic: CNBC
Trump’s legal strategy: block certification of Biden win in states: WSJ
Georgia will conduct hand recount of presidential election ballots: CNBC
UK economy rebounded in Q3 with 15.5% surge in GDP: CNBC
Eurozone industrial output unexpectedly fell in September: Reuters
Central banks face crucial challenges as covid crisis roils economies: BBG
10-year Treasury yield continues to rise, edging up to 8-month high — 0.98%
US Coronavirus Risk Is Rising
It’s going to be a rough winter. The resurgence of Covid-19 across the US suggests that the next several months may bring the toughest challenge yet for the country.
Macro Briefing: 11 November 2020
Biden transition continues as Trump refuses to concede: WSJ
US reports record Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations on Tuesday: AP
US states offer no support for narrative that election was stolen: NYT
Upbeat vaccine news boosts expectations for global economic rebound: WSJ
Hong Kong’s pro-democracy lawmakers resign in protest: Reuters
Obamacare expected to withstand new challenge in Supreme Court: CNBC
Economic challenges are lurking for Biden presidency: Politico
China increasing puts fintech in the regulatory crosshairs: BBG
A leading candidate for Treasury Sec: Lael Brainard, a Fed governor: Fortune
Small business sentiment in US holds steady in Sep at pandemic high: NFIB
US job openings picked up in Sep but trend still slipping: Reuters
A New Burst Of Reflation Pricing In The Treasury Market
The bond market gave reflation a new run of consideration yesterday (Nov. 9) as Treasury yields shot higher. Was it a reaction to news over the weekend that Joe Biden won the Electoral College vote? Meanwhile, Pfizer’s announcement on Monday that an experimental COVID-19 vaccine is 90%-plus effective helped set reflationary hearts aflutter. It’s still too early to declare that a decades-long disinflationary trend has run out of road, but the possibility that regime shift has arrived, or is near, has traction… again.
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Macro Briefing: 10 November 2020
Key Republicans decline to recognize Biden’s election win: NYT
Pfizer vaccine trial points to breakthrough for battling pandemic: Reuters
Europe runs low on ICU beds, hospital staff as virus spread rebounds: AP
Trump fires Defense Secretary Esper: CNN
China’s inflation falls despite economic rebound: Reuters
The US dollar could weaken under a Biden administration, analysts advise: CNBC
German investor confidence slides for a second month: BBG
Armenia and Azerbaijan announce end of fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh: AP
Can the head of GAO hold up a transition to a Biden administration? BBG
10-year Treasury yield rises to 0.96%, highest since March: CNBC
Clean Sweep: All The Major Asset Classes Posted Gains Last Week
Global markets rebounded last week, posting across-the-board gains, based on a set of exchange-traded funds as of Friday, Nov. 6. With the pandemic resurging in the US and Europe, however, the prospects for a sustained, broad-based rally look challenged.
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Macro Briefing: 9 November 2020
Biden presidency set to unwind Trump agenda with executive orders: FT
Trump advisers: Legal challenges to Biden victory is futile: BBG
Covid-19 will be a Biden administration’s first priority: NYT
Will pandemic overwhelm US health system before Biden takes office? Politco
Washington braces for uncertainty in Trump’s remaining time in office: TH
Democrats fear McConnel’s veto power in Senate: CNN
Goldman Sachs cuts economic growth outlook due to Covid-19’s resurgence: MW
US payrolls continued recovery in Oct but still far below per-pandemic level: BBG
Book Bits: 7 November 2020
Stephen J. Macekura
Summary via publisher (Chicago U. Press)
Few ideas in the past century have had wider financial, political, and governmental impact than that of economic growth. The common belief that endless economic growth, as measured by Gross Domestic Product, is not only possible but actually essential for the flourishing of civilization remains a powerful policy goal and aspiration for many. In The Mismeasure of Progress, Stephen J. Macekura exposes a historical road not taken, illuminating the stories of the activists, intellectuals, and other leaders who long argued that GDP growth was not all it was cracked up to be.
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 6 Nov 2020
Risk Assets Bounce Back: Sometimes a week makes all the difference. While the world was obsessed over the US election (Joe Biden appears headed for the White House based on the latest vote counts), global markets rebounded after last week’s across-the-board sell-off. Every component of our standard lineup of the major asset classes posted a gain.