Bill Bengen, a financial planner, forged an industry standard in 1994 for thinking about “safe” withdrawal rates for investment portfolios during retirement. His so-called 4% rule provided a quantitative framework for what had been mostly ad-hoc analysis up to that point. In a recent book, the father of the 4% rule has updated his research and now estimates that a safe withdrawal rate is higher than he originally reported.
Macro Briefing: 5 December 2025
US weekly jobless claims fell to the lowest level in over three years last week. The Thanksgiving holiday is probably a factor that’s distorting the data, but recent updates suggest that layoffs remain muted. “The labor market is kind of frozen,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. “Companies are in wait-and-see mode.”
Weak Labor Market Supports Outlook For Another Rate Cut
Markets were already expecting that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates again at next week’s policy meeting ahead of yesterday’s of ADP’s estimate of private non-farm payrolls for November. Following the release of jobs data, the news strengthened the dovish outlook.
Macro Briefing: 4 December 2025
US nonfarm private sector payrolls declined 32,000 in November, according to the ADP Employment Report. “While November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses,” said ADP’s chief economist. Some economists, however, downplayed the report: “It is too loosely correlated with the official data to be troubling,” advised Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Our model points to a first estimate of a 75,000 to 100,000 increase in private payrolls in November, which after revisions and benchmarking we think would be consistent with growth of about 25,000.”
High-Beta Risk Remains Top-Performing Equity Factor In 2025
As the trading year heads into its final weeks, so-called high-beta shares remain firmly in the lead for US equity risk factors in 2025, based on a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Dec. 2).
Macro Briefing: 3 December 2025
Non-traditional metrics may provide a better way of anticipating a burstring market bubble, reports The Economist: “Surges in Googling do a much better job than valuations at forecasting an imminent fall, as the chart’s third column shows. In each case the price of the stock, basket, fund or cryptocurrency dropped considerably over the 12 months following the peak in internet searches. Moreover, for the ARKK fund, bitcoin, GameStop and SPACs, prices spiked at almost exactly the same time as Googling did.”
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 02 December 2025
Long-term expectations for the Global Market Index (GMI) are holding at a 7%-plus annualized total return, based on data through November. The forecast has been stable at this pace in recent months, ticking up slightly from last month’s estimate.
Macro Briefing: 2 December 2025
US manufacturing contracted for a ninth straight month in November, based on the ISM Manufacturing Index. “The manufacturing sector continues to be weighed down by the unpredictable tariffs landscape,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets.
Major Asset Classes | November 2025 | Performance Review
Most of the major asset classes rose in November, extending the previous-month’s broad-based gains, based on a set of ETF proxies. US real estate investment trusts led the way, posting a robust gain last month.
Macro Briefing: 1 December 2025
US consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online for the Black Friday shopping spree. The sales level marks a 9.1% rise from last year, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks e-commerce. Spending increased despite weak consumer sentiment, according to a new CBS News/YouGov poll.
