In this issue:
- Rallies reach across the asset class spectrum this week
- Portfolio strategy benchmarks deliver another week of solid gains
US Q1 GDP Estimate Revised Up After Upbeat Economic Reports
The US economic outlook continues to improve for the upcoming first-quarter estimate of gross domestic product (GDP), based on a set of nowcasts. Compared with Q4’s solid increase, Q1 output is on track to show a substantially stronger gain in the scheduled Apr. 29 release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Macro Briefing: 16 April 2021
* China GDP surged in Q1 on year-over-year basis
* Pfizer CEO: public will likely need third Covid shot within 12 months
* Japanese prime minister will be first foreign leader to visit Biden’s White House
* Biden bans US banks from buying, underwriting Russian debt sales
* Stagflation is a growing economic threat, predicts economist Nouriel Roubini
* Jobless claims in US fell to new pandemic low last week
* Two regional Fed manufacturing surveys posted stronger growth in April
* US industrial production rebounded in March, led by manufacutring growth
* US retail sales surged in March thanks to stimulus checks:
Capturing Average Returns With Asset Allocation, Part II
In a recent post I reviewed how asset allocation is a reliable tool for earning average to above-average returns (with average or below-average risk) for a given opportunity set. Let’s extend the concept with a real-world test of three more market slices: US fixed income, US equity sectors and US equity risk factors.
Macro Briefing: 15 April 2021
* US will impose new, deeper sanctions on Russia
* Planned US troop pullout leaves Afghanistan with uncertain future
* 100-plus companies sign letter opposing US state voting restrictions
* Wall St banks report earnings growth and anticipate strong economic recovery
* Hedge funds post best year-to-date results in over a decade
* What happens when US economy’s stimulus high wears off?
* Fed will reduce bond purchases ‘well before’ raising rates, says Powell
* Fed Beige Book: US economic activity accelerated since February
* US 10-year Treasury yield holds steady for 2nd day, near 3-week low:
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 14 April 2021
In this issue:
- Is the bond market rout over?
- Is a renaissance brewing for European equities?
US Consumer Inflation Rises But Unclear If It’s Sustainable
Headline inflation rose sharply in March. The bond market yawned.
Macro Briefing: 14 April 2021
* Biden today will announce US military troops will leave Afghanistan by Sep. 11
* US and NATO signal strong support for Ukraine after Russian troop buildup
* China conducts military drills near Taiwan ahead U.S. officials visit in Taipei
* IRS chief: $1 trillion in taxes may go uncollected every year
* World dependency on fossil fuels expected to rise in years ahead
* US small business sentiment edged higher in March but remains middling
* Money managers focused on ‘make or break’ inflation outlook
* US headline 1-year consumer inflation accelerated sharply in March:
Asset Allocation Is A Strategy For Capturing Average Results
Every investment strategy has its own particular set of pros and cons. Do you know how your strategy’s profile stacks up? As a reference point, consider an unmanaged, market-weighted asset allocation strategy.
Macro Briefing: 13 April 2021
* Russia warns US warships to steer clear of Crimea
* Japan plans to release contaminated water from nuclear plant into sea
* Will Treasury auctions and inflation data end recent lull in the bond market?
* US inflation data for next few months will bounce but it could be misleading
* China int’l trade activity rebounds sharply as global economy recovers
* Banks on track for profit boost as economy rebounds
* UK economy rebounded in February
* New US Covid-19 cases continue to hint at possibility of fourth wave
* US federal deficit deepens to $660 billion in wake of stimulus checks:
