Macro Briefing | 17 August 2020

Pelosi calls back Congress over Postal Service troubles: Politico
Belarus leader says he’s ready to share power after protests: Reuters
S. Korea warns of a new coronavirus outbreak: Reuters
Europe’s economic recovery appears to be fading: BBG
Is Buffett’s purchase of gold mining shares a bet on the economic outlook? MW
California struggling to meet electricity demand in heatwave: WSJ
Japan’s GDP fell at record rate in the second quarter: CNN
US retail spending continued to rebound in July but growth slowed: CNBC
US consumer sentiment index remains near pandemic low in August: MW
Scientists find encouraging signs of Covid-19 immunity developing: NYT

10-year Treasury yield rose to two-month high last week:

Book Bits | 15 August 2020

The Riches of This Land: The Untold, True Story of America’s Middle Class
Jim Tankersley
Summary via publisher (Public Affairs)
For over a decade, Jim Tankersley has been on a journey to understand what the hell happened to the world’s greatest middle-class success story — the post-World-War-II boom that faded into decades of stagnation and frustration for American workers. In The Riches of This Land, Tankersley fuses the story of forgotten Americans– struggling women and men who he met on his journey into the travails of the middle class– with important new economic and political research, providing fresh understanding how to create a more widespread prosperity. He begins by unraveling the real mystery of the American economy since the 1970s – not where did the jobs go, but why haven’t new and better ones been created to replace them.

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Three Market “Anomalies” Test Contrarian Strategies

There’s an old Wall Street proverb that warns that the market can remain irrational for longer than you can stay solvent. The wisdom, or at least the empirical reality of that idea, has been put to the test in recent years on at least three fronts in the equity market via the persistent outperformance of growth stocks over value, large caps over small caps and US over foreign.

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Macro Briefing | 14 August 2020

Stimulus talks in Congress remain in limbo over $1 trillion aid to states: BBG
Israel and UAE sign historic deal that could reorder Mideast geopolitics: AC
US seizes Iranian fuel cargo to enforce sanctions: WSJ
Trump blocks coronavirus aid to derail funding for mail-in voting: Reuters
Greek and Turkish warships involved in ‘mini-collision’ in Mediterranean: Reuters
China’s industrial rebound continues but retail sales still sliding in July: SCMP
Is the stock market too optimistic in pricing in economic recovery? MW
US import prices rise for third straight month in July: MW
US jobless claims fell below 1-million mark last week–lowest since March: CNBC

Macro Briefing | 13 August 2020

Pompeo hints at broader US restrictions for Chinese tech: CNBC
US: Iran briefly seized oil tanker near the strategic Strait of Hormuz: AP
Next big Covid-19 hurdle: producing hundreds of millions of vaccines: Politico
US favors new tariffs on certain goods made in France and Germany: BBG
China fears deepening financial war as tensions rise with US: Reuters
US economic recovery headwind: state budget cuts due to coronavirus: WSJ
Buffett Indicator — stock-market-cap-to-GDP ratio — is flashing warning: MW
Are new US reporting rules for Covid-19 creating risks for accuracy? NYT
US consumer inflation continues to rebound but 1-year trend remains mild: MW

Will The US Economic Rebound Falter In 2020’s Second Half?

A number of encouraging economic indicators suggest that the US is recovering from the coronavirus recession that crushed output in the second quarter. But deciding if a bounce off a very deep bottom is laying the foundation for a robust, sustained recovery remains unclear. There are still too many unknowns lurking to develop a high-confidence forecast for the second half of 2020.

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Macro Briefing | 12 August 2020

Kamala Harris beats rivals to become Biden’s running mate: Politico
Is Russia’s rush to roll out a coronavirus vaccine at risk of backfiring? CNBC
China accelerates effort to be more reliant on domestic economy: WSJ
UK economic activity crashed in Q2 with a record 20.4% decline in GDP: CNBC
Eurozone industrial output rose for a second month in June: MW
Small Business Optimism Index edged down in July after strong gain in June: NFIB
US wholsale inflation rose sharply in July but 1yr trend still negative: MW
Economists warn that economic-crisis risk will rise without more jobless relief: FTE

China Continues To Lead World Equity Markets In 2020

Reviewing the global equity market as a single portfolio reveals a sleepy affair for year-to-date results through yesterday’s close (Aug. 10). But slicing and dicing shares into the major equity regions reveals a more dramatic story, including a strong lead for China’s stock market, based on a set of exchange traded funds.
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Macro Briefing | 11 August 2020

Putin says Russia is the first country to approve a Covid-19 vaccine: Reuters
Trump may block some US citizens returning to America due to Covid-19: Reuters
Trump says he’s considering a capital gains tax cut: BBG
Employers are skeptical of Trump’s plan for deferring payroll taxes: WSJ
New US sanctions on Hong Kong complicate banking industry links to China: CNBC
Big Tech meets the Biden campaign: NYT
German investor sentiment rebounded more than expected in August: Reuters
UK employment fell the most in over a decade in Q2: BBC
US job openings rose more than expected in June: BBG