US faces uncertain path for restarting economy: WSJ
Incoming data confirms that deep global recession began in March: Bloomberg
US suffered highest daily coronavirus death count to date on Tuesday (Apr. 7): BBC
Trump threatens to freeze funding for World Health Organization: FT
Treasury Sec. Mnuchin seeks additional $250 billion in small business aid: CNBC
Acting US Navy secretary resigns: Politico
The recent bounce in oil holds ahead of OPEC talks: CNBC
Twitter founder Jack Dorsey pledges $1 billion to fight coronavirus: BBC
Ahead of coronavirus fallout, US job openings near 7 million: MW
US small business optimism fell sharply in March: NFIB

There’s been no place to hide for US equity beta strategies this year, but the distribution of pain varies widely from a risk-factor perspective, based on a set of representative exchange-traded funds. The factor funds with the softest haircuts year to date: large-cap growth, momentum and low-volatility. By contrast, the various flavors of small cap , along with mid-cap value, have suffered the most.
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UK’s Boris Johnson in intensive care with coronavirus: CNBC
Pelosi: next economic stimulus bill will be $1 trillion: Bloomberg
Cautious optimism on clues that Europe’s coronavirus outbreak is easing: CNBC
No coronvirus deaths reported in China for first time: BBC
Japan approves near-$1 trillion stimulus bill to fight coronavirus: Reuters
Fed, Treasury working on new policy for small-business payroll loans: WSJ
2-year Treasury yield bounces off of seven-year low:

After weeks of falling, broadly defined commodities rallied sharply last week (through April 3) and posted the biggest gain for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. The first gain in six weeks for raw materials overall may be fleeting, but for the moment the rear-view mirror for this corner of markets is looking up.

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US faces a rough week ahead for battling coronavirus: Reuters
At least one-quarter of US economy idled by shutdown: WSJ
Emerging economies face challenges as default risk rises: FT
Bankrupt hospitals are back in demand during coronavirus crisis: WSJ
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson Admitted to Hospital for Coronavirus: Slate
Opec meeting re: production cut delayed amid oversupplied oil market: NY Times
Oil could fall to single digits without a deal out output cut: CNBC
German factory orders dropped in Feb–before coronavirus blowback: Reuters
US payrolls tumbled 701,000 in March: CNBC
Bloomberg’s recession tracker: Global downturn started in March: Bloomberg

Reported cases of Covid-19 infections on a global basis continue to exceed the median forecast, based on CapitalSpectator.com’s 8-model combination estimate (see note below). That’s a clue that a peak on a worldwide basis remains elusive for the immediate future. By contrast, new cases that fall below the median forecast on a continual basis will strengthen expectations for assuming that a durable apex is near or has already started. Alas, we don’t appear to be at that turning point yet for the global numbers.

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● Short Selling for the Long Term: How a Combination of Short and Long Positions Leads to Investing Success
By Joseph Parnes
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
Short Selling for the Long Term describes the methods used by Joseph Parnes, President of Technomart, to obtain consistent returns in the stock market. Most investors fail to exceed the returns represented by the Standard and Poor’s Stock Index, but Parnes often does using his investment philosophy. This book outlines his method of stock assessment, providing an understandable formula. If the formula tells a reader to buy a stock, then, as explained, there is a significant chance that stock will go up. If the formula tells a reader to short a stock, then the book shows how there is a significant chance that the stock will go down.
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In a previous post, I simulated S&P 500 drawdowns for perspective on what the current market correction may dispense in the weeks and months ahead. Let’s supplement that analysis by visually comparing the current and ongoing peak-to-market decline with the ten deepest drawdowns since 1950.

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Today’s US jobs report for March expected to show start of record collapse: WSJ
Americans urged to wear masks to combat coronavirus: Reuters
Eurozone PMI survey data for March points to largest GDP drop on record: Markit
Caixin China Composite Output Index posts 2nd lowest reading on record: Markit
US jobless rate probably at 13%–highest since Great Depression: NY Times
US jobless claims continued a record surge last last week: CNBC

The expected risk premium fell below 4% for the Global Market Index (GMI) in the wake of market turmoil unleashed by the global spread of the coronavirus. The index’s long-term annual return projection over the “risk-free” rate is now 3.8% annualized, down from last month’s 4.5% estimate and the 4.7% forecast from a year ago.
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