Macro Briefing | 14 April 2020

Governors of 10 states announce plans for gradual economic reopenings: Reuters
US economic reopening expected to be slow and tenuous: WSJ
Fed’s plan to favor certain cities for relief funding draws criticism: FT
Advanced economies on track for deeper slump vs. 2008 crisis: Bloomberg
Coronavirus-earnings season starts with today’s update from JP Morgan: CNBC
Treasury Dept: first round of coronavirus checks have been sent: USA Today
Economic pain will linger longer after economy reopens: NY Times
Is Texas in play for Nov election after state’s economic troubles? Politico
Treasury market’s inflation expectations continue to snap back:

Macro Briefing | 13 April 2020

Dr. Fauci: ‘cautious optimism’ that US coronavirus outbreak is slowing: CNBC
China’s new daily coronavirus cases rise to nearly 6-week high: Reuters
China imposes restrictions on publication of coronavirus research: CNN
Trump eyes reopening US economy but governors have the authority: USA Today
Minneapolis Fed President: US economic rebound could be ‘long, hard road’: CNBC
OPEC, Russia and US sign off on cut in oil production cut: Reuters
Goldman Sachs predicts that US stocks have seen their lows: Bloomberg
US consumer prices fell 0.5% in March–biggest monthly fall in 5 years: CNBC

US Coronavirus Deaths Appear To Peaking For Daily Changes

We’ve seen this movie before, only to learn otherwise with subsequent updates. But maybe it’s the real deal this time. The daily change for Covid-19 fatalities in the US is showing renewed signs of trending lower, based on data through Apr. 12, according to numbers published this evening by Johns Hopkins. As always, it’ll take several days at the least before we can even begin to take the shift seriously. Meantime, there’s bad news to consider: the apex for the sum of cumulative fatalities is still nowhere on the immediate horizon. But if the downturn in the daily change persists, the fatalities may be close to flat-lining.
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Book Bits | 11 April 2020

Reprogramming the American Dream: From Rural America to Silicon Valley―Making AI
Serve Us All

By Kevin Scott with Greg Shaw
Q&A with author (Scott) via The Verge
This week for our Vergecast interview series, Verge editor-in-chief Nilay Patel chats with Microsoft chief technology officer Kevin Scott about his new book Reprogramming the American Dream: From Rural America to Silicon Valley―Making AI Serve Us All.
Scott’s book tackles how artificial intelligence and machine learning can help rural America in a more grounding way, from employment to education to public health. In one chapter of his book, Scott focuses on how AI can assist with health care and diagnostic issues — a prominent concern in the US today, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the interview, Scott refocuses the solutions he describes in the book around the current crisis, specifically supercomputers Microsoft has been using to train natural language processing now being used to search for vaccine targets and therapies for the novel coronavirus.
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Anticipating The Ugly US GDP Reports Ahead

In recent weeks the moderate optimism on the US economic outlook has deteriorated—gradually at first, then suddenly. The catalyst, of course, is the coronavirus and the attempt to battle its spread—a policy that economist Paul Krugman describes as the economic equivalent of a “medically induced coma.” Whatever you call it, the blowback is severe and no one knows how it’ll play out or, more importantly, how the eventual recovery will unfold. Meantime, let’s consider some of the latest guesstimates for the Covid-19-triggered recession that’s roiling the American economy.

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Macro Briefing | 10 April 2020

Economic fallout stirs debate about when to reopen US economy: WSJ
Fed expands stimulus to support economy and markets: CNBC
European Union agrees to $540 billion rescue package for coronavirus: BBC
IMF chief: global economy set for worst recession since Great Depression: Reuters
OPEC deal on oil production cut in doubt after Mexico balks: CNBC
Mortgage rates near record low but securing a new loan is challenging: MW
US jobless claims continue to soar: CNBC
US Consumer Sentiment suffers dramatic decline in April: Bloomberg

The Desperate Search For Peak Coronavirus

The most important economic indicator at the moment has nothing to do with the dismal science per se and everything to do with how a certain health crisis unfolds over the days, weeks and months ahead. The elephant in the room, of course, is coronavirus data. In particular, the point where it peaks. Depending on the country, the timing (and reliability) of the peaking varies. Ultimately, a global apex is the main event. Unfortunately, the data is questionable and the future is unclear as ever. Not a great basis for analysis and forecasting, but it’s the only game in town. With that in mind, let’s take a brief tour of US data to see where we stand.

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Macro Briefing | 9 April 2020

Sanders quits presidential race; Biden becomes presumptive Dem nominee: Vox
NY Gov Cuomo: state beginning to flatten coronavirus curve: Newsweek
Will today’s Opec+ meeting stabilize flooded oil market? CNBC
Electricity data offers a useful real-time measure of the recession: NY Times
US jobless claims expected to surge again in today’s weekly update: CNBC
Coronavirus may not fade in summer, scientists warn: NY Times
IMF, World Bank report surge of aid requests from developing world: WSJ
Fed minutes show concern over coronavirus in March: Reuters
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index posts biggest weekly decline on record: BBG