Is the infection rate for new coronavirus cases in South Korea peaking? Unclear, although the latest data suggests that’s a possibility offering what may be a light at the end of the tunnel for the country and the rest of the world. Yes, that’s a highly speculative proposition at this point, but it’s also a possibility worth exploring (and monitoring as new numbers are published in the days ahead).
Macro Briefing | 11 March 2020
Biden’s lead in Democratic primary strengthens after Tuesday’s voting: CNN
ECB chief: Europe risks a major economic shock from coronavirus: Bloomberg
Washington considers steps to boost economy as coronavirus cases rise: Reuters
Bank of England announces emergency rate cut in response to coronavirus: CNBC
Saudi Arabia rolls out plans to raise output even further: WSJ
Companies focus on raising cash as coronavirus roils business outlook: Reuters
Putin considers becoming Russia’s president for life: Vox
US small business owners remained optimistic in February: NFIB
US same-store sales trend for 1yr chg show retail spending remains robust: BB
Out-Of-Sample Risk Is (Always) The Biggest Threat To Expectations
In the 1974 film “Chinatown,” Noah Cross tells Jake Gittes, the nosy detective: “You may think you know what you’re dealing with, but believe me, you don’t.” The advice isn’t out of line for investors, portfolio managers and economists who’ve studied economic and market history and assume that the future will play out with similar twists and turns by dropping robust signals ahead of the next crisis.
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Macro Briefing | 10 March 2020
Trump to propose policies to ease economic fallout from coronavirus: WSJ
Analysts consider economic and political fallout from coronavirus: Reuters
Italy expands emergency coronvirus measures to entire nation: BBC
Will a Biden win in Michigan today secure his bid as Democratic nominee? CNN
How long will the oil war between Saudi Arabia and Russia last? CNBC
Sharp stock market declines usually followed by rebounds, history shows: MW
How will coronavirus affect US primary elections? NY Times
Safe-haven German 10-year bond yield approaching -1.0%, a record low: Reuters
REITs And Bonds Rose Last Weeks As Global Stocks Fell
Coronavirus-related selling took a toll on equity markets last week (and more of the same is in store for today). But in a striking bit of defiance, US real estate investment trusts (REITs) bucked the trend last week, posting the strongest gain for the major asset classes for trading through Friday, Mar. 6, based on a set of ETFs.
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Macro Briefing | 9 March 2020
Global markets tumble on Monday as coronavirus cases continue to rise: CNN
North Korea fires projecticles off its east coast in new round of threats: Politico
10yr Treasury yield falls to new record low in overnight trading: 0.3469%: CNBC
Oil prices collapse after Saudi Arabia launches price war: CNN
Gold above $1700 an ounce for first time since late-2012: Reuters
US payrolls continued to rise at strong pace in February: MW
Consumer credit growth in US slowed in January: Mstar
Trade deficit for US narrowed more than expected in January: CNBC
US 10-year real Treasury TIPS yield fell to -0.57% on Friday, lowest since 2013:
Coronavirus Forecast Update: 8 March 2020
Revised data for CapitalSpectator.com’s coronavirus (Covid-19) forecast, based on an 8-model combination, continues to show that global reported cases are on track to rise further in the near term (using the median point forecast as proxy).
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Book Bits | 7 March 2020
By Nelson D. Schwartz
Review via Vox
This is the opening scene of Nelson D. Schwartz’s new book The Velvet Rope Economy: How Inequality Became Big Business, which explains how everything Americans purchase — travel, leisure, education, and health care — suddenly got really good for the wealthy and a lot worse for the rest of us.
Income inequality has risen since the 1970s, and at the same time, companies have begun to cater to the only demographic whose prospects are growing. Fancy new sports stadiums with separate doors for box seat holders, VIP airport terminals, Uber Copters, and the privatization of everything from high school sports to firefighter squads are all examples of what Schwartz dubs the “velvet rope economy.”
US Payrolls Continued Rising At Strong Pace In February
Coronavirus risk is lurking, but if the US economy’s vulnerable it’s not obvious in today’s payrolls report for February. Hiring by American firms remained strong last month: private payrolls increased 228,000, the Labor Department reports. The gain is near the best increase in recent history and lifted the one-year trend to a 13-month high.
Will US Treasury Yields Go Negative?
The relatively high and positive yields in US government bonds have been an outlier in global markets, but coronavirus blowback appears on track to wipe away that spread (or at least make a hefty dent). Rates are still positive across the Treasury curve in early trading on Friday (Mar. 6), but downside momentum rolls on and as the global risk-off trade accelerates the prospect of below-zero yields in US is becoming increasingly plausible at some point in the near future.