Coronavirus cases rise sharply as death toll surges in China: CBS
Trump’s intervention in Stone case shocks Washington: Politico
Trump says proposed cut in military pact with Philippines is no problem: Reuters
Central banks taking a wait-and-see policy approach to coronavirus: WSJ
European Commission: coronavirus is “key downside risk” for Eurozone: BBG
Oil demand expected to drop in Q1–first slide in a decade: CNBC
Senate hearing today will address Judy Shelton, controversial Fed pick: BBG
DFA: new bond factors appear to be irrelevant for fixed-income investing: InstInv
Driven by global search for yield, Greece’s ‘junk’ 10-yr bond yield dips below 1%: FT

It’s not even close. As early starts for calendar years go on a global basis, the US stock market’s roaring debut in 2020 so far has left the rest of the world in the dust, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.

Continue reading →

Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire primary: CNN
US officials: China’s Huawei can covertly access mobile-phone networks: WSJ
Official data suggest coronavirus infection rate is peaking in China Reuters
Fed Chairman Powell gave upbeat outlook on US economy to Congress: Reuters
Eurozone industrial output fell 2.1% in December, deepest slide in 4 years: BBG
Will coronavirus blowback push Europe into recession? NY Times
Small business sentiment in January ‘solid as ever’ in January: NFIB
US job openings fell to a 2-year low in December: CNBC

Last November, the US stock market was making a seemingly risky bet that the economy would muddle through the soft patch that was weighing on output. The S&P 500 Index was making new highs, in sharp contrast with the stumbling ADS Index — the Philadelphia Fed’s real-time measure of the US business cycle was flirting with a recession signal at the time. As it turned out, the economy stabilized and the stock market has since soared to even loftier heights. But just when it looked like the macro danger had passed, the coronavirus that’s roiling on China, and spreading near and far, is increasingly seen as posing some as-yet unknown threat for the global economy and perhaps the US as well.

Continue reading →

Coronavirus death toll tops 1,000: Bloomberg
Is economic risk from coronavirus exaggerated? Maybe, says Ray Dalio: CNBC
US charges four Chinese intelligence officers with data hacking: Politico
Philippine President Duterte ends troop agreement with US: Reuters
Fed Chair Powell expected to give upbeat economic testimony this week: Reuters
UK economy was flat in Q4, stumbling after solid gain in Q3: Guardian
White House projections for falling US deficit look shaky: WSJ
Big tech dominates the S&P 500: CNN
Is the party over for tech stocks? Not yet, predicts Goldman Sachs: MW
10yr-3mo Treasury yield curve inverted (again) on Monday: Reuters

China, the world’s second-largest economy, continues to suffer in human and economic terms from the coronavirus, but there were minimal signs of concern in last week’s performance of the US equity market, which posted the strongest increase for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETFs.

Continue reading →

Trump’s budget proposal targets large cuts in non-defense spending: Politico
As China returns to work after holiday, coronavirus deaths top 900: Reuters
Taiwan scrambles jets for 2nd day to intercept Chinese planes: Reuters
China’s Hubei province, an industrial powerhouse, is shut for 3rd week: BBG
Political turmoil in Germany after far-right candidate wins vote: NY Times
Stock bull Ed Yardeni: How long will investors shrug off coronavirus? CNBC
Big tech dominates holdings in funds marketed as ‘sustainable’ investments: WSJ
Hiring rebounded sharply in US during January: MW
10yr Treasury yield curve looks poised to invert… again:

● The Scientist and the Spy: A True Story of China, the FBI, and Industrial Espionage
By Mara Hvistendahl
Review via NewAmerica.org
Industrial espionage by Chinese companies lies beneath the United States’ recent trade war with China, and it is one of the top counterintelligence targets of the FBI. But a decade of efforts to stem the problem have been largely ineffective. Through previously unreleased FBI files and her reporting from across the United States and China, Hvistendahl describes a long history of shoddy counterintelligence on China, much of it tinged with racism, and questions the role that corporate influence plays in trade secrets theft cases brought by the U.S. government. The Scientist and the Spy is both an important exploration of the issues at stake and a compelling, involving read.
Continue reading →

Private payrolls in the US rebounded in January, beating expectations by a wide margin and minimizing concern that the economy is stumbling, according to this morning’s release from the Labor Department. Companies added 206,000 workers–a solid improvement over December’s 142,000 gain in the private sector. The 1-year trend edged down last month, near the lowest pace since the recession ended. But for now it appears that the worst you can say about jobs creation is that the annual comparison is easing at a gradual rate that still leaves plenty of room for macro optimism in the near term.

Continue reading →

The spread of negative interest rates around the world in recent years is worrisome, in part because it raises the specter of strengthening deflationary headwinds for the global economy. Optimists counter that subzero yields are an anomaly that will soon give way to a normalization of rates, which is to say positive yields. Maybe, but the forces of economic history suggest otherwise, according to new research from the Bank of England.

Continue reading →