Macro Briefing | 28 January 2020

Coronavirus infections in China rise above 4,500; deaths climb to 106: CNBC
New York, with large Chinese population, prepares for coronavirus: NY Times
Don’t blame the slide in US stocks on the coronavirus: MW
Pressure rising for Bolton testimony in impeachment trial: WSJ
Italy’s populist leader fails to win key regional election: RFI
Cyprus is Europe’s new front line for immigration battle: NY Times
Texas factory output accelerated in Jan: Dallas Fed
US new home sales fell in Dec but 1-year trend still healthy:

Macro Briefing | 27 January 2020

China’s death toll from the coronavirus rises to 80: Bloomberg
Coronavirus worry weighs on global stock markets: CNBC
China halts trading on stock exchanges as virus outbreak spreads: SCMP
US Embassy compound in Baghdad was hit by rockets on Sunday: CNN
Trump Tied Ukraine aid to political inquiries, according to Bolton book: NY Times
Does a housing slowdown around the world threaten the global economy? WSJ
Fed considers policy of capping Treasury yields in next recession: WSJ
German business sentiment deteriorated unexpectedly in January: Reuters
US growth strengthens in Jan as Composite PMI rises to 10mo high: IHS Markit
US financial market stress falls to record low (since 1994): St Louis Fed

Book Bits | 25 January 2020

The New Class War: Saving Democracy from the Managerial Elite
By Michael Lind
Review via The Washington Examiner
The New Class War: Saving Democracy from the Managerial Elite [is] a short volume that examines the populist revolts in the U.S., Britain, and Western Europe. All of them, Lind says, are part of a transatlantic class war being waged on three fronts — politics, economics, and culture. For a brief period after World War II, working-class and rural constituencies enjoyed real bargaining power in all three realms. Since then, the West has seen a “technocratic neoliberal revolution from above” that has systematically destroyed the working class’s ability to participate in national life. The result has been the rise of working-class populism, culminating in Brexit and the election of President Trump.
Continue reading

Macro Briefing | 24 January 2020

Does China’s virus outbreak threaten the global economy? NY Times
Eurozone economy remains close to stagnant in January: IHS Markit
German economy shows sign of modest recovery in January: IHS Markit
UK economy returns to modest growth in January via PMI survey: IHS Markit
Japan’s economy posts a rebound in January: IHS Markit
US jobless claims rose last week but still near lowest in decades: CNBC
KC Fed Mfg Index remains weak in Jan, but avg for regional banks still positive
US Leading Economic Indicator’s 6-mo trend dipped deeper into the red in Dec:

Correlations Profile | Major Asset Classes | 23 January 2020

Return correlations for the major asset classes have edged down in recent years, which implies that diversification opportunities have increased, if only marginally. The correlation readings are only modestly softer overall and for several asset class pairings it’s fair to say that nothing much has changed. But reviewing all the key slices of global markets by way of pairwise return correlations shows that the median for this risk metric has slipped, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
Continue reading

Macro Briefing | 23 January 2020

China locks down a second city to halt spread of coronavirus: WSJ
Coronavirus is threat that will test China’s economy: SCMP
US envoy: slain Iran general’s fate awaits successor if he kills Americans: Reuters
Trump says US growth has slowed because of Federal Reserve: CNBC
ECB expected to keep deposit rate at minus 0.5% in today’s announcement: BBG
Will digital taxes lead to the next tariff war? NY Times
Global economy in ‘sweet spot,’ says Harvard University economist: Bloomberg
Low rates, low inflation threaten central bank independence: VoxEU
Existing home sales in the US accelerated in Dec, close to 2-year high: Reuters
US economic trend still sluggish but continued to edge up in Dec: Chicago Fed

Momentum Stocks Roar Higher In 2020 Start For Equity Factors

The year is still young but so far there’s a clear winner in the horse race among US equity factors: momentum. Following a mostly meandering performance in 2019’s fourth quarter, large-cap momentum has been on a nearly non-stop rally in the new year that’s left the rest of the field in the dust, based on a set of ETFs representing factor strategies in the US equity market.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing | 22 January 2020

China virus spreads, lifting death toll and raising pandemic fears: Reuters
Senate blocks effort to allow Bolton’s testimony in impeachment trial: The Hill
No date set for second phase of US-China trade talks, says China source: BBG
Trump says US GDP growth would be close to 4% if Fed cut rates sooner: CNBC
Trump’s top economic adviser Kudlow: Fed’s T-Bill buys ‘basically’ QE: MNI
Trump administration imposes more sanctions on Venezuela’s regime: CNBC
US plans to add travel restrictions to seven nations in Africa and Asia: WSJ
Amazon’s Bezos’ phone reporetedly hacked by Saudi Arabia’s crown price: TG
10-year Treasury yield slips to 1.78%, lowest since Dec. 4: