Buttigieg maintains slim lead in partial, delayed Iowa caucus results: CNN
Coronavirus could delay, not derail, US-China trade deal: WSJ
Trump highlights economic growth in State of the Union speech: WSJ
Senate expected to acquit Trump in impeachment trial today: Reuters
Will coronavirus ‘wildcard’ cause central banks to react? Bloomberg
Eurozone Composite PMI ticks up, suggesting economy is stabilizing: IHS Markit
China Services PMI continues to reflect slow growth in January: MW
UK Services PMI rose sharply in Jan–first growth reading in 5 months: IHS Markit
US factory orders rose sharply in December, but 1-year trend remains negative:

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index was steady in January after edging higher in recent months. Today’s revised estimate leaves GMI’s long-term ex ante return at an annualized 5.0% (before factoring in a “risk-free” rate).
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Chaos in Iowa as Dems’ voting results delayed over technical issues: CBS
China prepares new support for economy hurt by coronavirus outbreak: Reuters
Turkey launches airstrike against gov’t forces in Syria: NY Times
Wall St worries about Sanders winning the White House: CNN
Chinese virus threatens to cut supply chain for US companies: WaPo
Global Mfg PMI rises to 9-mo high in Jan, reflecting modest growth: IHS Markit
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow modestly raises Q1 growth nowcast to 2.9%: AF
Construction spending in US fell in Dec for first time since June: Reuters
US Mfg PMI slipped in Jan but still shows modest growth: IHS Markit
US ISM Mfg Index in Jan rebounded to growth after 5 months of contraction:

Stocks, crude oil and high-yield bonds were clobbered in January as investors ramped up demand for investment-grade bonds and gold. Driving the risk-off sentiment in the latter half of last month: rising concern that the coronavirus that’s spreading in China and beyond will take a bit out of the global economy.
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Isolating China over virus outbreak will strain global economy: WSJ
China’s stock market plunges on Monday following extended holiday: CNBC
China’s central bank rolls out new monetary stimulus to offset virus risk: BBG
Post-Brexit Britain will not align with EU rules, says UK foreign sec: BBC
China complains that US is spreading fear about coronavirus: Reuters
UK mfg sector activity flat in Jan as political stability returns: IHS Markit
Mfg sector in Eurozone continued to contract in Jan via PMI data: IHS Markit
Eurozone growth slowed in Q4, slumping to softest quarter since 2013: BBG
US Consumer Sentiment Index edges up to “very positive” level in Jan: UoM
US consumer spending’s 1yr trend accelerated sharply to +5.0% in Dec:

● Arguing with Zombies: Economics, Politics, and the Fight for a Better Future
By Paul Krugman
Interview with author via Marketplace.org
The zombies that haunt Paul Krugman aren’t undead people, but ideas — false ideas about how the economy works that just won’t die, despite evidence proving them wrong. According to the New York Times opinion columnist and Nobel laureate in economics, they won’t die because politicians won’t let them. “The ultimate zombie, the one that you see most often, is that tax cuts pay for themselves,” Krugman told “Marketplace Morning Report” host David Brancaccio. This is the premise of Krugman’s new book, “Arguing With Zombies: Economics, Politics, and the Fight for a Better Future.”
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A key part of informed decision-making on asset allocation is estimating future risk premia and using those projections to influence weights in the portfolio. The question, of course, is how to estimate premia? There are no easy answers for the simple reason that forecasting the future is complicated. A good way to start, however, is by managing expectations via history. There are many possibilities on this front, including one that’s often overlooked: profiling the distribution of historical premia for a preliminary dose of perspective.

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Coronavirus declared global health emergency by World Health Organization: WSJ
US warns citizens not to travel to China due to virus outbreak: Reuters
UK confirms first case of coronavirus: CNBC
Singapore closes border to Chinese travelers: SCMP
Eurozone GDP growth in Q4 eased to slowest gain in 7 years: Bloomberg
Britain will leave the European Union today: CNN
China manufacturing activity was flat in Jan via PMI survey: Reuters
US jobless claims remain near 50yr low, signaling strong labor market: MW
US GDP rose 2.1% in Q4, matching Q3 gain and lifting 1-year trend:

The new year is not quite a month old but that hasn’t stopped US bonds from piling up impressive returns. For the strongest corners of fixed income, it’s fair to say that 2020 has been spectacular so far, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.

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Coronavirus death toll continues to rise and spreads throughout China: BBC
Fed holds rates steady, cites ‘moderate’ economic growth: USA Today
Britain prepares to formally leave EU on Friday: BBC
Today’s US Q4 GDP data expected to report moderate growth: Reuters
EU recommends limiting, but not ending, use of high-risk 5G vendors: NY Times
Trade deficit rose sharply for US in Q4: Reuters
US Pending Home Sales Index fell 4.9% in December: Reuters
10yr-3mo Treasury yield curve looks set to invert… again: MW