The published data suggest moderate growth remains intact, but the rear-view mirror has rarely been so meaningless for assessing the likely path of the economic trend in the months ahead. As the coronavirus blowback spreads, the US economy is slowing, and in many sectors grinding to a halt. The result, of course, is that a recession appears inevitable, perhaps a severe one. The optimistic view is that the downturn will be short and the bounce-back will be strong. But economists are now in agreement: output will probably contract.

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Trump shifts tone, says coronavirus may last through summer: BBC
US economy may be grinding to a halt as coronavirus spreads: NY Times
Is the US at risk of a depression? Reuters
Morgan Stanley: global recession is now the base case: Bloomberg
Amazon to add 100,000 workers amid surge in online ordering: WSJ
Reported coronavirus infections understate actual data, study shows: NY Times
Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index collapsed in the March update: ZEW
NY Fed Mfg Index falls sharply in March, reflecting contractio in sector: NY Fed
US stock mkt (S&P 500) drawdow approaches -30% after Monday’s sharp slide:

The coronavirus blowback that’s roiling the world cut into every facet of the major asset classes last week, based on a set of exchange traded funds. Another challenging week awaits, as sharp losses in overseas markets and US futures trading (ahead of New York’s open for stocks) on Monday suggest.

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Fed announces rate cut to near zero: WSJ
Central banks announce emergency policy measures: Reuters
US stock futures drop sharply on Monday, hitting “limit down”: CNBC
Goldman Sachs Predicts US GDP will drop 5% in Q2: Bloomberg
America confronts shutdown: CNN
Biden and Sanders debate with coronavirus as backdrop: CNBC
US Consumer Sentiment Index fell in March “due to… coronavirus” UoM
10yr Treasury yield falling again on Monday as risk-off trade accelerates:

● Pharma: Greed, Lies, and the Poisoning of America
By Gerald Posner
Review via The Intercept
As the new coronavirus spreads illness, death, and catastrophe around the world, virtually no economic sector has been spared from harm. Yet amid the mayhem from the global pandemic, one industry is not only surviving, it is profiting handsomely.
“Pharmaceutical companies view Covid-19 as a once-in-a-lifetime business opportunity,” said Gerald Posner, author of “Pharma: Greed, Lies, and the Poisoning of America.” The world needs pharmaceutical products, of course. For the new coronavirus outbreak, in particular, we need treatments and vaccines and, in the U.S., tests. Dozens of companies are now vying to make them.

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China has been the epicenter for the coronavirus outbreak, but its stock market is suffering the least on a year-to-date basis through yesterday’s close (Mar. 12) for the world’s major equity market regions, based on a set of exchange traded funds.

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Coronavirus infections spread near and far: Reuters
US launches airstrikes on Iranian-backed militia sites in Iraq: CNN
Global recession risk rising, economists advise: WSJ
What would a US recession look like this time? NY Times
US stock market is at risk of worst week in history after Friday’s trading: MW
Coronavirus fears drive world interest rates toward zero: Bloomberg
US producer prices in Feb fell the most in five years: CNBC
US jobless claims remain low, but coronavirus blowback lurks ahead: MW
US stock market (S&P 500) on Thursday fell to lowest level since Dec 2018:

The dramatic slide in the US stock market in recent days is effectively a forecast that an economic recession is fate. The assumed catalyst: coronavirus blowback. No one can dismiss this risk, but at the moment there are no hard numbers to confirm that a US recession is near. Nonetheless, it’s all but certain that growth will slow, perhaps significantly. Deciding if the economy will contract, however, remains debatable. Mr. Market, however, is assuming the worst with an aggressive round of discounting the future. The challenge in the days and weeks ahead is determining if the incoming economic data support the market’s worst fears.

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President Trump bans travel from Europe to US to battle coronavirus: BBC
State Dept advises citizens to reconsider traveling abroad: CNN
Germany’s Merkel: up to 70% of Germans could contract coronavirus: BBC
ECB expected to roll out major stimulus package to combat coronavirus: CNBC
Saudi Arabia gambles on oil-price war: CNN
US consumer price inflation picked up to 2.4% in Feb, highest since 2018: MW
S&P 500 drawdown near -20% bear market territory after Wednesday’s slide:

Is the infection rate for new coronavirus cases in South Korea peaking? Unclear, although the latest data suggests that’s a possibility offering what may be a light at the end of the tunnel for the country and the rest of the world. Yes, that’s a highly speculative proposition at this point, but it’s also a possibility worth exploring (and monitoring as new numbers are published in the days ahead).

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