Hong Kong cancels all flights due to protests: CNBC
Goldman Sachs economists see rising US recession risk due to trade war: Reuters
Argentina’s president loses primary, casting doubts on his re-election: Reuters
US government debt yields are sharply lower today: CNBC
Here’s a list of key events for next several weeks that could rock stocks: MW
Could it happen here? Sliding US yields raise concerns about negative rates: WSJ
US wholesale inflation in July remained subdued at 1.7% annual pace: MW

● The Skyscraper Curse: And How Austrian Economists Predicted Every Major Economic Crisis of the Last Century
By Mark Thornton
Summary via publisher (Ludwig von Mises Institute)
In the wake of the financial crisis of 2008, the economics profession suffered a blow to what reputation it had. But unlike most of his colleagues, Mark Thornton was vindicated by 2008. Mark has been a voice of sanity at times when the wild interventions of the Federal Reserve have caused otherwise sensible people to lose their minds. This collection serves the valuable purpose of defending the market economy against the conventional view that freedom has failed us and we need still more controls. We had plenty of rules and bureaucrats on the eve of the financial crisis. A lot of good that did us. Pretty much none of them saw any problems on the horizon. Maybe we should consider a real free market, with sound money and market interest rates, and abolish the giant bubble machine once and for all.
Continue reading →

There are several extraordinary aspects to the US-China trade war, but perhaps the most unusual (and risky) is President Donald Trump’s reliance on “his own intuition and analysis and not the advice of aides,” as The Washington Post reports, for waging economic conflict.

Continue reading →

US-China trade war is pinching global oil demand: WSJ
Is US oil in the crosshairs for China as trade conflict escalates? CNBC
Majority of economists say US-China trade war raising US recession risk: Reuters
UK economy contracted in Q2, first quarterly decline since 2012: BBC
German exports fell sharply in June, the most in three years: Bloomberg
China’s Huawei unveils phone operating system to replace Google’s Android: AP
China’s food prices surge 9% annually due to swine fever outbreak: CNBC
US jobless claims fell last week, continue to signal strong labor market: Reuters
Philly Fed’s US business cycle index (ADS Index) still reflects low recession risk:

The stock market has taken investors on a white-knuckle ride in 2019, but despite the surge in volatility lately all the major equity sectors continue to post year-to-date gains, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. Leading the field by a substantial margin: technology shares, closely followed by real estate investment trusts (REITs).

Continue reading →

China’s exports unexpectedly rose in July despite US tariffs: CNBC
Pakistan-India ties fray over India’s policy changes in Kashmir: BBC
US immigration authorities arrest nearly 700 people in Mississippi: Reuters
Treasury yields bounce on Thursday after yesterday’s sharp drop: CNBC
Negative yields are a possibility for the US, predicts Pimco analyst: MW
China’s central bank hints at weaker-currency policy: NY Times
US consumer credit growth continued to slow in June: MW
Oil prices fall to 7-month low on economic worries: Reuters

The recent slowdown in US economic growth is expected to continue in the third quarter, based on recent nowcasts. The numbers suggest that the current expansion, the longest on record, will endure. But with no end in sight for the US-China trade war, and elevated risk that a currency war is brewing for the planet’s two largest economies, the potential for trouble is rising.

Continue reading →

N. Korea’s Kim says recent missile launches are warning to US: CNBC
US-China trade war raising global recession risk: Bloomberg
US trade tariffs cost US firms $3.4 billion in June: Reuters
China and Pakistan warn India over changes in disputed border area: Newsweek
German industrial output fell at deepest annual rate in a decade: BBG
India’s central bank cuts interest rates for fourth time: CNBC
US job openings slipped in June but remain above 7 million for 15th month: MW

For several months all was working well. Or so it seemed. Slowly ratcheting up trade tariffs on China gave President Trump several talking (and tweeting) points with minimal economic blowback. US growth slowed, but only modestly and in any case it wasn’t obvious that the trade war was to blame. But the game may have changed on Monday, when China let its currency fall below rise above a psychologically key red line: 7 to the US dollar, marking the lowest point in more than a decade for the yuan.

Continue reading →

US Treasury labels China as “currency manipulator”: WSJ
Currency-war risk is rising: CNBC
China acts to limit weakness in yuan: Bloomberg
N. Korea launches missiles into sea for 4th time within 2 weeks: Reuters
Former Fed governors warn that central bank should remain independent: CNN
German factory orders rebounded in June: Bloomberg
Global output edged up to three-month high in July: IHS Markit
Services PMI for US ticked up in July to four-month high: IHS Markit
US services growth (ISM Non-MFg Index) fell to three-year low in July: CNBC
10-year Treasury yield drops to 1.75%–lowest since 2016: