The Global Market Index (GMI) is expected to earn a 7%-plus annualized total return in today’s update for the long-run outlook, based on data through September. The estimate is unchanged from the previous month’s analysis.
Macro Briefing: 2 October 2025
US companies reduced payrolls for a second straight month in September, according to the ADP Employment Report. The data offers a n ew warning sign for the labor market outlook. “Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that US employers have been cautious with hiring,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson.
Major Asset Classes | September 2025 | Performance Review
All the major asset classes posted gains in September, extending a broad-based rally in recent history. The year-to-date results also reflect across-the-board wins, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 1 October 2025
The Federal government shut down for the first time since 2019. The odds still look low for a political compromise in Congress and so it’s unclear how long the shutdown will last. The Senate is expected to vote again today, likely on the same two measures that failed Tuesday. The betting market Kalshi is currently pricing in 79% odds that the shut down will last more than 5 day.
US Government Heading For Shutdown Starting October 1
Barring a last-minute deal between Democrats and Republicans today, the government is on track to shutdown at 12:01 am. If funding for the government ends, it would temporarily suspend some, but not all, US government operations until Congress agrees to a budget to reopen the affected services.
Macro Briefing: 30 September 2025
US pending home sales rose to a 5-month high in August. “Lower mortgage rates are enabling more home buyers to go under contract,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at National Association of Realtors. “In the Midwest, low mortgage rates combined with high levels of affordability are attracting more buyers compared to other regions.”
Foreign Stocks Still Lead Global Markets In 2025 Going Into Q4
Pick an asset allocation. Any allocation. All the possibilities have been winning combinations so far in 2025. As a result, the most-striking aspect of global markets as the third quarter winds down: across-the-board gains continue to prevail for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Sep. 26).
Macro Briefing: 29 September 2025
US inflation continued to edge higher in August based on a price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The headline index was up 2.7% year-over-year, the highest level since April 2024. Core PCE prices, which exclude volatile prices for food and energy, rose 2.9% over the year, matching July’s trend.
Book Bits: 27 September 2025
● Pay Up!: Conservative Myths About Tax Cuts for the Rich
John C. Campbell
Summary via publisher (Cambridge U. Press)
Since the Reagan era, conservatives in the United States have championed cutting taxes, especially for wealthy individuals and corporations, as the best way to achieve economic prosperity. In his new book, Pay Up!, John L. Campbell shows that while these claims are highly influential, they are also wrong. Using historical and cross-national evidence, the book challenges and refutes every justification conservatives have made for tax cuts – that American taxes are too high; they hurt the economy; they facilitate government waste; they constitute an unfair downward redistribution of income; and they threaten individual freedom – and conversely shows that countries can actually benefit from higher taxes, especially when tax increases fall most heavily on those most able to pay them.
Foreign Bonds Remain A Winning Trade In 2025
Tilting portfolios toward non-US bonds has been a successful strategy for fixed-income allocations in 2025. The Federal Reserve’s recent pivot to rate cuts could keep the trend humming through the rest of the year.