Warren is focus of attacks at Democratic debate: CNBC
VP Pence, Sec. of State Pompeo in Turkey today to push for Syrian ceasefire: Fox
US indicts Turkey’s 2nd-largest bank on evading Iran sanctions: NY Times
China criticizes House bill that focuses on Hong Kong: Reuters
Doubt hangs over China’s promise to buy more US farm products: WSJ
Brexit talks stall over familiar stumbling blocks: CNBC
Upbeat corporate earnings help raise US stock market to 3-week high: MW
IMF forecasts global growth will slow to weakest pace since financial crisis: BBC
10yr-3mo Treasury yield curve remains positive for 3rd day after run of inversion:

Every recession is different and the next one, whenever it strikes, will likely continue the tradition. As a Bloomberg column reminded last week, the risk factors that may be aligning to deliver the next contraction are an unusual mix.

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Trump announces sanctions on Turkey, demands Syria ceasefire: Reuters
VP Pence headed to Turkey for negotiations: MW
Doubts follow Trump’s trade deal with China: The Hill
EU’s chief negotiator: Brexit deal ‘still possible’: BBC
Turkish lira rises despite Trump’s new economic sanctions on Turkey: CNBC
China’s factory deflation ticked deeper into the red in September: Bloomberg
German investor sentiment remains weak in October via ZEW survey: Bloomberg
NY Fed Mfg Index edges up in Oct, middling growth vs. recent history: NY Fed

Commodities prices rebounded last week after a run of declines, posting the strongest weekly performance for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. Foreign stocks were in close pursuit for the performance leadership during the trading week ended Oct. 11.

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Trump expected to impose new sanctions on Turkey for Syria invasion: Reuters
China requests more talks before signing latest trade deal with US: BBG
Will the latest US-China trade truce boost global growth? Maybe not: WSJ
China will be a factor in Q3 earnings that are starting to roll in: MW
House intel chairman: whistleblower testimony may not be needed: The Hill
Eurozone industrial output rebounded in August: Reuters
Brexit deal remains long shot as Oct 31 deadline nears: CNBC
China’s exports/imports fell more than forecast in September: CNBC
US consumer expectations for real income rises to two-decade high in Oct: UoM

● After the Crash: Financial Crises and Regulatory Responses
Edited by Sharyn O’Halloran and Thomas Groll
Summary via publisher (Columbia U. Press)
The 2008 crash was the worst financial crisis and the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression. It triggered a complete overhaul of the global regulatory environment, ushering in a stream of new rules and laws to combat the perceived weakness of the financial system. While the global economy came back from the brink, the continuing effects of the crisis include increasing economic inequality and political polarization. After the Crash is an innovative analysis of the crisis and its ongoing influence on the global regulatory, financial, and political landscape, with timely discussions of the key issues for our economic future.

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The US stock market has climbed a wall of worry this year, led by technology and real estate shares. The two sectors have been red hot for most of 2019 and that’s still true by wide margins, based on a set of exchange traded funds.

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Turkey pounds Syrian Kurds in third day of military offensive: Reuters
Iranian tanker struck by missiles off coast of Saudi Arabia: CNBC
US-China trade talks set to continue on Friday after encouraging start: WSJ
Brussels meeting hints at possible UK-EU deal on Brexit: BBC
Jobless claims fell last week, pointing to ongoing US labor mkt growth: Reuters
10yr-3mo Treasury yield curve briefly turned positive on Thursday: MW
Low headline consumer inflation in Sep suggests another Fed rate cut: MW

Ahead of today’s September report on US consumer inflation, the Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast via 5-year maturities quietly ticked down to 1.24% in Wednesday’s trading (based on daily data via Treasury.gov). The crowd’s estimate of future pricing pressure for 5-year Notes marks the lowest level since February 2016. Although market-based estimates of future inflation should be viewed cautiously, the latest dip is a reminder that a downside bias continues to prevail in this corner of economic expectations.

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Turkey invades northeastern Syria; US says it didn’t approve the assault: BBC
Turkey’s Syria invasion ends fight against ISIS: Foreign Affairs
United States’ and China’s top trade negotiators set to meet today: Reuters
US considers a currency deal as part of China trade negotiations: Bloomberg
Fed officials considered rising recession risk at bank’s Sep meeting: The Hill
US Q3 GDP growth estimate slips to weak +1.7% in GDPNow model: Atlanta Fed
Falling German imports in Aug highlight recession risk: Reuters
US job openings fell to a 1-1/2 year low in August: Reuters