This week’s delayed fourth-quarter report on US gross domestic product (GDP) remains on track to confirm that US economic growth continued to slow. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to report (on Thursday, Feb. 28) that the expansion moderated for a second straight quarter, based on a set of nowcasts. The release will also reveal that recession risk remained low for the US at the close of 2018, although preliminary data for 2019 suggests that growth will continue to decelerate.
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India launches air strike in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir: Fox
Congress inching closer to rebuking Trump’s emergency declaration: Politico
VP Pence announces new sanction’s on Venezuela’s Maduro regime: CBS
UK Prime Minister May set to rule out no-Brexit deal: Reuters
N. Korea’s Kim arrives in Vietnam for meeting with Trump: Reuters
Texas mfg activity slows in Feb but outlook remains positive: Dallas Fed
US wholesale inventories rose a strong 1.1% in December: MW
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: US economic growth slowed in Jan: Chicago Fed

Led by a strong increase in emerging-market stocks, a buying spree lifted all corners of global markets last week, based on a set of exchange-traded products.
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Trump says he’ll delay tariff increase for Chinese goods: WSJ
Beijing is cautiously optimistic on prospects for US-China trade deal: SCMP
Will a US-China trade deal stop the global economic slowdown? CNBC
Trump and Kim may formally declare end to 1950-53 Korean War: NY Times
NABE survey: more than 75% of economists expect recession by 2021: Bloomberg
US stock market volatility (VIX Index) fell to 5-month low on Friday:

● Bubbles and Crashes: The Boom and Bust of Technological Innovation
By Brent Goldfarb and David A. Kirsch
Summary via publisher (Stanford University Press)
Financial market bubbles are recurring, often painful, reminders of the costs and benefits of capitalism. While many books have studied financial manias and crises, most fail to compare times of turmoil with times of stability. In Bubbles and Crashes, Brent Goldfarb and David A. Kirsch give us new insights into the causes of speculative booms and busts. They identify a class of assets—major technological innovations—that can, but does not necessarily, produce bubbles. This methodological twist is essential: Only by comparing similar events that sometimes lead to booms and busts can we ascertain the root causes of bubbles.
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Across-the-board gains continue to mark this year’s results for global equity markets, based on a set of exchange-traded funds that track the world’s major regions and countries. At the top of the performance list so far in 2019: stocks in China, Latin America and Africa.
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Trump to meet with China’s top trade negotiator today: Bloomberg
Existing home sales in US fell to 3-year low in Jan: Reuters
Mortgage rates fall to 1-year low, suggesting possibility of housing rebound: MW
US core durable goods orders fell in December: CNBC
US jobless claims retreat, suggesting labor market remains strong: MW
Leading Economic Index for US ticked lower in Jan: CB
Philly Fed Index goes negative in Feb–first time in 3 years: MW
PMI survey data: US economic growth picked up in Feb: IHS Markit

The US economic trend continues to slow, but the deceleration – so far – has been gradual and non-threatening in terms of raising recession risk to a critical level. In other words, moderate growth prevails, albeit with a downside bias. If the deceleration rolls on, the potential for trouble may become elevated in the second half of 2019.
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US and China lay groundwork to end trade war: Reuters
House plans to block Trump’s emergency declaration: Politico
UK’s prime minister (still) searching for solution to Brexit impasse: Bloomberg
Japan’s government: economy still recovering at ‘moderate pace’: MNI
Iran’s foreign minister: a conflict with Israel is possible: Reuters
Eurozone growth remains ‘muted’ in February via PMI survey data: IHS Markit
China may be planning to launch a more aggressive round of stimulus: CNBC
Fed minutes: policymakers see little risk to leaving rates steady: Reuters
Gold price jumps to 10-month high: MarketWatch

The bull run in US bonds shows no sign of slowing, based on year-to-date performances for a set of exchange-traded funds. All the major slices of fixed-income markets are posting gains through yesterday’s close (Feb. 19), with junk bonds leading the field by a solid margin.
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