The major asset classes delivered a mix of gains and losses last week, led by foreign high-yield bonds and foreign stocks in developed markets. Meantime, broadly defined commodities and real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the US posted the biggest losses, based on monitoring markets with a set of exchange-traded funds.
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Macro Briefing: 4 March 2019
US and China appear set for trade deal: Reuters
Will Friday’s US jobs report calm worries about the economy? CNBC
Eurozone Mfg PMI: sector contracted in Feb: IHS Markit
Global Mfg PMI dropped to 32-month low in Feb: IHS Markit
US personal income fell in Jan–first monthly loss in 3 years: CNBC
US Consumer Sentiment Index for Feb revised down: Bloomberg
US Mfg PMI dropped to 18-month low in Feb: IHS Markit
ISM Mfg Index for US in Feb eased to lowest print since Nov 2016: CNBC
Consumer spending in US fell sharply in Dec–biggest slide in 9 years: AP
Book Bits | 2 March 2019
● Behavioral Finance:
What Everyone Needs to Know
By H. Kent Baker, et al.
Summary via publisher (Oxford University Press)
People tend to be penny wise and pound foolish and cry over spilt milk, even though we are taught to do neither. Focusing on the present at the expense of the future and basing decisions on lost value are two mistakes common to decision-making that are particularly costly in the world of finance. Behavioral Finance: What Everyone Needs to Know provides an overview of common shortcuts and mistakes people make in managing their finances. It covers the common cognitive biases or errors that occur when people are collecting, processing, and interpreting information. These include emotional biases and the influence of social factors, from culture to the behavior of one’s peers. These effects vary during one’s life, reflecting differences in due to age, experience, and gender.
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Major Asset Classes | February 2019 | Performance Review
US stocks continued to rebound in 2019, generating the strongest performance for the major asset classes in February. Foreign stocks, high yield bonds and US real estate investment trusts (REITs) also rose while investment-grade bonds in the US and abroad slumped.
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Macro Briefing: 1 March 2019
US officials preparing final trade deal for China: Bloomberg
US Senate may vote to block Trump’s emergency border declaration: Reuters
UN Sec. Counsel vetoes resolution for new presidential vote in Venezuela: CNN
Eurozone mfg activity contracts in Feb for first time since 2013: IHS Markit
US GDP growth cooled for second straight quarter in 2018’s Q4: NY Times
Fed Chief Jerome Powell: US Economy ‘Is in a Good Place’: WSJ
US jobless claims rose more than expected last week: CNBC
Chicago area business activity surged surged to one-year high in Feb: Chicago PMI
Mfg activity was mostly flat in KC Fed district in Feb: KC Fed
10yr-2yr Treasury yield spread rises to year-to-date high of 21 basis points:
US GDP Growth Slowed In Q4 But 1-Year Trend Ticked Up Again
US economic growth in real (inflation-adjusted) terms slowed in the fourth quarter to 2.6% (seasonally adjusted annual rate), the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported in today’s report on gross domestic product (GDP). The softer increase, which was expected, marks the second quarter of deceleration, slipping from Q3’s 3.4% gain and the strong 4.2% increase during last year’s Q2.
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Small-Cap Value, Liquidity Top US Equity Factor Returns In 2019
US stocks in the small-cap value bucket continue to lead the performance list for the major equity factors for year-to-date results (through Feb. 27), based on a set of exchange-traded funds. In close pursuit is the so-called liquidity factor, which is currently the second-strongest performer this year.
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Macro Briefing: 28 February 2019
Trump’s meeting with N. Korea’s Kim abruptly ends with no deal: Reuters
Cohen’s testimony in Congress raises potential legal risks for Trump: Bloomberg
China’s factory activity falls to 3-year low in Feb via survey data: CNBC
US factory orders inched up in Dec, just barely: CNBC
Pending home sales in US for Dec rebounded, but annual trend still negative: MW
US trade deficit increased in Dec, weighing on Q4 growth outlook: CNBC
GDPNow model sees modest 1.8% rise for today’s Q4 GDP report: Atlanta Fed
Weak Housing Construction Suggests Softer US Growth Ahead
New residential housing construction was surprisingly weak in December, presenting more evidence for assuming that the US economic growth will continue to slow. Housing permits perked up, providing a degree of optimism for expecting that building activity will rebound in the months ahead. But reviewing both indicators on a rolling one-year basis suggests that the housing trend has weakened — a trend that will create headwinds for the US economy in the months ahead.
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Macro Briefing: 27 February 2019
Pakistan shot down 2 Indian jets, raising threat of wider war: WSJ
Trump says N. Korea has ‘awesome’ potential ahead of meeting with Kim: Reuters
House passes law that rejects Trump’s declaration of border emergency: Reuters
Economic signals suggest China’s growth is picking up: Bloomberg
Fed chairman: unlimited borrowing via Modern Monetary Theory is ‘wrong’: CNBC
Home prices in US rose in Dec at slowest pace since 2015: CNBC
Richmond Fed: mfg activity in district strengthened in Feb: Richmond Fed
US housing starts fell to 2yr low in Dec, but permits suggest rebound is near: MW