Led by a strong increase in emerging-market stocks, a buying spree lifted all corners of global markets last week, based on a set of exchange-traded products.
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Trump says he’ll delay tariff increase for Chinese goods: WSJ
Beijing is cautiously optimistic on prospects for US-China trade deal: SCMP
Will a US-China trade deal stop the global economic slowdown? CNBC
Trump and Kim may formally declare end to 1950-53 Korean War: NY Times
NABE survey: more than 75% of economists expect recession by 2021: Bloomberg
US stock market volatility (VIX Index) fell to 5-month low on Friday:

● Bubbles and Crashes: The Boom and Bust of Technological Innovation
By Brent Goldfarb and David A. Kirsch
Summary via publisher (Stanford University Press)
Financial market bubbles are recurring, often painful, reminders of the costs and benefits of capitalism. While many books have studied financial manias and crises, most fail to compare times of turmoil with times of stability. In Bubbles and Crashes, Brent Goldfarb and David A. Kirsch give us new insights into the causes of speculative booms and busts. They identify a class of assets—major technological innovations—that can, but does not necessarily, produce bubbles. This methodological twist is essential: Only by comparing similar events that sometimes lead to booms and busts can we ascertain the root causes of bubbles.
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Across-the-board gains continue to mark this year’s results for global equity markets, based on a set of exchange-traded funds that track the world’s major regions and countries. At the top of the performance list so far in 2019: stocks in China, Latin America and Africa.
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Trump to meet with China’s top trade negotiator today: Bloomberg
Existing home sales in US fell to 3-year low in Jan: Reuters
Mortgage rates fall to 1-year low, suggesting possibility of housing rebound: MW
US core durable goods orders fell in December: CNBC
US jobless claims retreat, suggesting labor market remains strong: MW
Leading Economic Index for US ticked lower in Jan: CB
Philly Fed Index goes negative in Feb–first time in 3 years: MW
PMI survey data: US economic growth picked up in Feb: IHS Markit

The US economic trend continues to slow, but the deceleration – so far – has been gradual and non-threatening in terms of raising recession risk to a critical level. In other words, moderate growth prevails, albeit with a downside bias. If the deceleration rolls on, the potential for trouble may become elevated in the second half of 2019.
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US and China lay groundwork to end trade war: Reuters
House plans to block Trump’s emergency declaration: Politico
UK’s prime minister (still) searching for solution to Brexit impasse: Bloomberg
Japan’s government: economy still recovering at ‘moderate pace’: MNI
Iran’s foreign minister: a conflict with Israel is possible: Reuters
Eurozone growth remains ‘muted’ in February via PMI survey data: IHS Markit
China may be planning to launch a more aggressive round of stimulus: CNBC
Fed minutes: policymakers see little risk to leaving rates steady: Reuters
Gold price jumps to 10-month high: MarketWatch

The bull run in US bonds shows no sign of slowing, based on year-to-date performances for a set of exchange-traded funds. All the major slices of fixed-income markets are posting gains through yesterday’s close (Feb. 19), with junk bonds leading the field by a solid margin.
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House Dems launch investigation into Trump administration’s Saudi deals: The Hill
Deputy Transportation Sec. Rosen to be nominated as dep. att. general: Politico
U.K. Prime Minister heads to Brussels to save Brexit deal: MW
Taiwan president says that China poses global threat: CNN
A China state-run newspaper warns of fallout from new US tariffs: CNBC
Walmart’s fiscal Q4 earnings surged: CNBC
Today’s release of Fed minutes may shed light on policy change: Bloomberg
Is the housing market too weak to trigger the next recession? NY Times
US home builder confidence increased for a second month in Feb: BB

Recent reports from the housing sector point to a new round of weakness in this critical slice of the US economy, potentially raising a warning flag for the year ahead. The jury’s still out, in part because a critical update has been delayed, due to the partial government shutdown that ended late last month. The Census Bureau has rescheduled the December figures on residential housing construction for next week (Feb. 26). Using a variety of sources to forecast the update suggests the numbers will bring a mixed bag of news.
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