Ex-marine identified as gunman in Thousand Oaks, Calif. shooting: CNN
Fed leaves rates unchanged, noting slowdown in business invesment: CNBC
China’s car sales declined for fourth month in October: Reuters
China’s inflation remained tame in October: Bloomberg
Trump rolls out regulation to limit asylum access at the US-Mexico border: Politico
Florida’s Senate race still in doubt and recount is likely: The Hill
Democrat pulls ahead in Arizona’s too-close-to-call Senate race: The Hill
Federal judge blocks Keystone XL pipeline construction: NY Times
US jobless claims ticked down last week, holding near multi-decade low: CNBC
Crude oil (W. Texas Int.) falls again, settling at lowest price since March: MW
Growth Continues To Crush Value This Year For US Equity Factors
The sharp swings in the stock market in recent weeks haven’t dented the year-to-date performance edge that’s prevailed for large- and small-cap growth stocks in the US over their value counterparts, based on a set of exchange-traded funds through yesterday’s close (Nov. 7).
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Macro Briefing: 8 November 2018
US Attorney General Jeff Sessions resigned at Trump’s request: The Hill
Sessions’ resignation is stoking political firestorm on Capitol Hill: Politico
Fed expected to leave rates unchanged today and continue hiking in Dec: Reuters
Russia downplays prospects for relations with US after Dems take House: CNN
US mortgage applications close to four-year low: Bloomberg
Stock market bulls say gridlock is good in Washington: MarketWatch
China’s imports and exports in October exceeded forecasts: CNBC
US consumer borrowing growth slowed in Sep: MarketWatch
Policy sensitive 2yr Treasury yield ticks up to new post-recession high of 2.93%:
US Growth Slowdown Expected To Continue In Q4
Early estimates of GDP growth for the US in the fourth quarter point to another round of deceleration, based on the median for a set of projections compiled by The Capital Spectator. Although it’s still early in the quarter, leaving room for changes in the outlook based on incoming data, the preliminary numbers hint at the possibility that growth will continue to cool in the final three months of 2018.
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Macro Briefing: 7 November 2018
Democrats take back the House; GOP holds Senate: MarketWatch
A Democratic House is eager to take on Trump: Politico
House Democrats will probably change US foreign policy: Reuters
How will the election results influence the stock market? CNBC
Global economic growth edged up at the start of Q4: IHS Markit
PMI data for Eurozone: growth slowed to lowest pace in over 2 years: IHS Markit
US job openings dipped in Sep but still near record high: CNBC
Profiling Factor ETF Correlations
Slicing and dicing the US equity market into factor buckets is, at its core, an effort to enhance return by engineering more control over risk management. A key part of this framework is recognizing that risk and return for the stock market overall is a byproduct of multiple factors, such as shares trading at low valuations or posting strong price momentum in the recent past. In turn, it’s reasonable to assume that a set of factor ETFs will exhibit relatively low correlations with one another, offering a degree of diversification otherwise unavailable via standard portfolio designs for capturing equity beta. To test that assumption, let’s review the return correlations for a broad set of factor ETFs in recent history.
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Macro Briefing: 6 November 2018
Democrats appear to have an edge in today’s election: FiveThirtyEight
Facebook discloses possible election meddling by Russia: USA Today
Trump’s decision to deploy troops to border will cost $200M-$300M: CNN
Supreme Court refuses to hear appeal over net neutrality rules: The Hill
China’s VP: China is ready to resolve trade dispute with US: CNBC
Services PMI for US reflects “strong” business activity for Oct: IHS Markit
US ISM Non-Mfg Index for Oct reflects “strong growth”: CNBC
Stocks Rebounded As Commodities And US Bonds Fell Last Week
Led by equities in emerging markets, stocks around the world rebounded last week, based on a set of exchange-traded products that represent the major asset classes. The positive results for equities follows a wave of selling in the previous week for global stock markets. Meanwhile, last week’s big losers: broadly defined commodities and investment-grade bonds in the US.
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Macro Briefing: 5 November 2018
Polls give Dems slight edge for House, GOP for Senate: RealClearPolitics
Is Trump’s focus on immigration over the economy hurting the GOP? Politico
What the Dems would do if they take back the House: Bloomberg
China Services PMI: growth slowed to 13-month low in October: CNBC
China’s Xi promises to lift imports and lower trade barriers: Reuters
US payrolls surged in Oct and y-o-y wage gains exceeded inflation: CNBC
US trade deficit with China sets new record in September: MarketWatch
Factory orders in US rose more than expected in September: Reuters
Traders expect volatile week for Treasuries as 10yr yld nears 7yr high: Bloomberg
Book Bits | 3 November 2018
● Keeping At It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government
By Paul Volcker with Christine Harper
Review via The Atlantic
Paul Volcker’s 6-foot-7-inch frame was draped over a chaise longue when I spoke with him recently in his Upper East Side apartment, in Manhattan. He is in his 91st year and very ill, and he tires easily. But his voice is still gruff, and his brain is still sharp.
We talked about his forthcoming memoir, Keeping at It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government—about why he wrote the book and the lessons he hopes to impart. Volcker is not a vain man, but he knows that his public life was consequential, and he wants posterity to get it right. He also does not mince words. In our conversation, he assailed the “greed and grasping” of the banks and corporate leadership, and the gross skewing of income distribution in America.
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