The US expansion remains on track for a moderate deceleration in fourth-quarter GDP growth, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. The good news is that the estimate has been steady in recent weeks.
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House passes bill to reopen gov’t despite Trump’s opposition: The Hill
2-year Treasury rate briefly fell below Fed funds rate on Thursday: Reuters
Eurozone Composite PMI indicates weakest growth in 4 years: IHS Markit
Caixin China Composite PMI: modest growth rate ticked up in Dec: IHS Markit
Dallas Fed chief says central bank should pause on rate hikes: CNBC
Consumer confidence in China appears to be weakening: NY Times
US jobless claims rose last week, but still point to labor mkt strength: CNBC
ISM Mfg Index falls to lowest level in 2 years: CNBC
US job cuts rose 29% in 2018 vs. previous year: CG&C
US firms expanded payrolls in Dec; biggest monthly gain in nearly 2 years: MW

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) fell to an annualized 4.2% in December, moderately below the 4.6% estimate in the previous month. The revised projection for GMI (an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes) represents the ex ante premium over the projected “risk-free” rate for the long run.
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No sign of partial gov’t shutdown ending; new meeting set for Friday: The Hill
Apple cuts sales forecast, citing weak demand in China: Reuters
Apple’s sales warning reverberates in financial markets: Bloomberg
China’s economy is becoming a risk factor for int’l firms: CNBC
Global Mfg PMI for Dec slipped to lowest level in over 2 years: IHS Markit
US Mfg PMI: growth slowed to 15-month low in Dec: IHS Markit
Eurozone Mfg continued to slow in Dec via PMI survey data: IHS Markit
Small Business Jobs Index for US continued to fall in Dec: Paychex
Gold ticked up to highest close since June on first trading day of 2019: Kitco

Nearly every corner of the financial and commodity markets stumbled in 2018. Except for a modest gain in cash and a flat performance for a broad measure of US investment-grade bonds, last year was awash in red ink.
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Trump offers to ‘make a deal’ with Dems on partial gov’t shutdown: Fox
President Xi says Taiwan ‘must and will be’ reunited with China: BBC
Brazil’s new right-wing president promises sweeping changes: CBS
N. Korea’s Kim calls on US to end sanctions: NY Times
US stock futures fall after weak data on China’s mfg sector: Bloomberg
Eurozone mfg growth continued to decelerate in Dec: IHS Markit
Dallas Fed Mfg Index was surprisingly weak in Dec: Houston Chronicle
China can’t avoid an economic slowdown: National Interest
PMI survey data: China’s mfg output contracts for first time in 19 months: CNBC

A new year, a new opportunity, a new start. All the best for 2019!

Most of the major asset classes posted gains last week, providing a respite after the previous week’s rout. Led by the US equities, stock markets around the world posted solid advances during the trading week ended Dec. 28, based on a set of exchange-traded products.
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Global stocks rise on Monday amid signs of progress in US-China trade talks: WSJ
China Mfg PMI: sector contracts in Dec, marking first slide in 2 years: CNBC
Economists weigh potential damage of partial gov’t shutdown for US: USA Today
The allure of anti-bubbles in markets — the mirror image of bubbles: NY Times
10 geopolitical risks to monitor for 2019: Foreign Policy
Commodities weathered another tough year in 2018: Bloomberg
US farmers warily eye a major Pacific trade deal set to start without US: CNBC
US wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in October: MW
Chicago PMI reflects strong regional economic conditions in Dec: MarketWatch
US pending home sales continued to fall in November: CNBC

Last week I posted the first batch of noteworthy titles that appeared in The Capital Spectator’s weekly Book Bits column in 2018. Here’s the second half of the year-end recap of books that deserve another look.

● Meltdown: Why Our Systems Fail and What We Can Do About It
By Chris Clearfield and Andras Tilcsik
Excerpt via Big Think
We can’t turn back the clock and return to a simpler world. Airlines shouldn’t switch back to paper tickets and traders shouldn’t abandon computers. Instead, we need to figure out how to manage these new systems. Fortunately, an emerging body of research reveals how we can overcome these challenges.
The first step is to recognize that the world has changed. But that’s a surprisingly hard thing to do, even in an era where businesses seem to celebrate new technologies like blockchain and AI. When we interviewed the former CEO of Knight Capital years after the firm’s technological meltdown, he said, “We weren’t a technology company—we were a broker that used technology.” Thinking of technology as a support function, rather than the core of a company, has worked for years. But it doesn’t anymore.
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