The winners keep on winning. That sums up the horse race for much of this year based on a set of ETFs targeting the main US equity factor risk premiums. Going in to the home stretch for 2024, the momentum and large-cap growth factors continue to post a commanding lead over the rest of the field, based on trading through Wednesday’s close (Dec. 4).
Macro Briefing: 5 December 2024
US nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 146,000 in November, down from a 184,000 gain in the previous month, according to the ADP Employment Report. “While overall growth for the month was healthy, industry performance was mixed,” says Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. “Manufacturing was the weakest we’ve seen since spring. Financial services and leisure and hospitality were also soft.”
Is US Economic Growth Accelerating In Q4?
The odds still look skewed toward a softer pace of expansion for fourth-quarter GDP, but an upgraded nowcast from the Atlanta Fed hints at the possibility for something stronger.
Macro Briefing: 4 December 2024
US job openings rose in October, rebounding from September, when new openings fell to a three-year low. Although the current reading is well below the April 2022 peak following the economy’s recovery from the pandemic, the October level is still above the pre-pandemic high point. “The report points to ongoing resilience and doesn’t flag major concerns about the economy,” says Oren Klachkin, financial market economist at Nationwide. “With policy still restrictive in its view, the Fed can probably push through with another rate cut before considering a pause next year.”
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 03 December 2024
The long-term performance forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to increase in November, marking a full reversal of the recent slide in ex ante data. Today’s estimate also marks the highest return outlook in recent history and is modestly above the previous month’s forecast.
Macro Briefing: 3 December 2024
US manufacturing contraction eased in November, according to the survey-based ISM Manufacturing Index. The 48.4 reading is the highest since June, but remains well below the neutral 50 mark.
Major Asset Classes | November 2024 | Performance Review
Global markets delivered mixed results in November. US stocks and real estate estate investment trusts led last month’s winners, rebounding with solid gains following October’s decline, based on a set of ETFs. Commodities and shares in emerging markets suffered the biggest losses in November.
Macro Briefing: 2 December 2024
US jobless claims fell for a third straight week, slipping to a 7-month low. The recent decline and relatively low level of new filings for unemployment benefits suggest that the labor market will remain resilient in the near term. “The underlying trend in first-time claims implies that firms continue to carefully manage their workforce amid an economy at full employment,” writes Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.
Happy Thanksgiving 2024
The festival of eating, giving thanks, and breaking free of the usual routine will keep your editor off the grid for a few days. Regular programming returns on Monday, Dec. 2. Cheers!
Revised US GDP Nowcast For Q4 Still Reflects Modest Slowdown
The US economy remains on track to end the year with a moderate increase in output, according to the median Q4 GDP estimate based on a set of nowcasts published by several sources. Recession risk, as a result, is still a low-probability risk for the near term. The question is whether a sharp change in US economic policy in 2025 will change the calculus?