Polls give Dems slight edge for House, GOP for Senate: RealClearPolitics
Is Trump’s focus on immigration over the economy hurting the GOP? Politico
What the Dems would do if they take back the House: Bloomberg
China Services PMI: growth slowed to 13-month low in October: CNBC
China’s Xi promises to lift imports and lower trade barriers: Reuters
US payrolls surged in Oct and y-o-y wage gains exceeded inflation: CNBC
US trade deficit with China sets new record in September: MarketWatch
Factory orders in US rose more than expected in September: Reuters
Traders expect volatile week for Treasuries as 10yr yld nears 7yr high: Bloomberg

● Keeping At It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government
By Paul Volcker with Christine Harper
Review via The Atlantic
Paul Volcker’s 6-foot-7-inch frame was draped over a chaise longue when I spoke with him recently in his Upper East Side apartment, in Manhattan. He is in his 91st year and very ill, and he tires easily. But his voice is still gruff, and his brain is still sharp.
We talked about his forthcoming memoir, Keeping at It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government—about why he wrote the book and the lessons he hopes to impart. Volcker is not a vain man, but he knows that his public life was consequential, and he wants posterity to get it right. He also does not mince words. In our conversation, he assailed the “greed and grasping” of the banks and corporate leadership, and the gross skewing of income distribution in America.
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Private payrolls in the US surged 246,000 in October, according to this morning’s update from the Labor Department. The gain, which was well above the consensus forecast, marks a sharp rebound following September’s weak 121,000 rise.
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The projected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) fell to an annualized 4.5% in October, down from 5.0% in the previous month’s outlook. This estimate for GMI (an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes) reflects the ex ante premium over the projected “risk-free” rate for the long run.
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Trump says he had ‘good’ conversation with China’s Xi on trade: CNBC
US will give 8 nations waivers to buy Iranian oil: Bloomberg
US job growth expected to accelerate in today’s Oct report: Reuters
Cook Political Report lifts forecast of Dems’ edge in House race: WashEx
ISM Mfg Index fell to six-month low in Oct: MarketWatch
US Mfg PMI ticks up in Oct, signaling moderate growth: IHS Markit
US job cuts surge in Oct, mostly due to Verizon: 24/7 Wall St
Jobless claims in US fell last week, reaffirming strong labor market: CNBC
US construction spending flat in Sep after sharp rise: MarketWatch.
W. Texas Intermediate crude oil slumped to 7-mo low on Thursday: MarketWatch

There was almost no place to hide in October. Except for cash, all the major asset classes lost ground last month, marking the first across-the-board setback since February’s widspread declines.
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Second migrant caravan headed for US is moving through Mexico: USA Today
Trump says he may deploy up to 15,000 troops to southern border: The Hill
US-China trade war taking a toll on manufacturing across Asia: Reuters
China Mfg PMI close to unchanged in October: IHS Markit
US private job growth strengthens to 227k in Oct, an 8-mo high: ADP
Stocks took a beating around the world in Oct: CNN Business
Oil’s slide in Oct is the deepest in over two years: CNBC
Chicago PMI drops to 6-mo low in Oct: MarketWatch
Info tech sector was biggest drag on S&P 500 in October: S&P

The Federal Reserve remains on track to raise interest rates again in December, according to the futures markets. But the wisdom for another round of policy tightening is drawing more criticism in the wake of a surge in stock market volatility and signs that economic growth has slowed in the US, China and Europe.
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Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 slumped to four-year low: NY Times
US dollar rises to highest level in more than a year: Reuters
US charges Chinese military officers with theft of jet engine data: Reuters
China’s Mfg PMI for Oct points to slowest growth in over two years: CNBC
Reeling from financial stress, GE cuts its 119-year-old dividend to one cent: CNN
Annual trend for US home prices slips below 6% rise for first time in a year: S&P
Conference Board: US Consumer Confidence Index at 18-year high in Oct: CNBC
Election forecast still favors Democrats for retaking House: FiveThirtyEight

Most economic measures continue to paint an upbeat profile for the US, but yesterday’s September report on consumer spending and income hints at the possibility that softer growth is approaching. There’s still no clear sign of rising recession risk on the immediate horizon, but it’s reasonable to wonder if the surge in economic activity following Donald Trump’s election two years ago is now in the process of reversing and giving way to a lesser rate of expansion.
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