House OKs bill to avoid US gov’t shutdown, but Senate approval is unclear: Politico
US trade deficit for 2017 at highest level since 2008: The Hill
Trump favors shutdown if Dems don’t agree to immigration demands: The HIll
Germany’s main parties end deadlock and form coalition: Reuters
US job openings fall to seven-month low in Dec: Bloomberg
Growth outlook for UK ticks up: MNI
Market crash claims its first victims for VIX-linked products: Bloomberg
Analyst Ed Yardeni remains bullish on outlook for equities: Yardeni.com
GDPNow model projects strong 4.0% gain for US GDP in Q1: Atlanta Fed
What Does History Tell Us About The Stock Market’s Dive?
The 4.1% plunge in the S&P 500 yesterday looks ominous, all the more so since it follows last week’s hefty 3.8% decline. But focusing on what just happened distorts our capacity to maintain a healthy sense of historical perspective. As an antidote, let’s step back and consider the latest market action through a longer-term lens.
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Macro Briefing: 6 February 2018
World stock markets continue to dive on Tuesday: Reuters
Monday’s 1175-point Dow slide is a record for absolute declines: WSJ
Global policy makers react to stock market plunge: Bloomberg
Re-evaluating the wisdom of tax cuts after the market slide: NY Times
US ISM Non-Mfg Index surges in Jan, near 10-year high: CNBC
PMI: US services sector growth eases to nine-month low in Jan: IHS Markit
Survey data shows global economic growth at 40-mo high in Jan: IHS Markit
All The Major Asset Classes Took A Hit Last Week
Red ink spilled across all corners of global markets last week, reversing the previous week’s clean sweep of gains, based on a set of exchange-traded products. The perfect storm of losses marks the first round of weekly declines in every market since Dec. 2016.
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Macro Briefing: 5 February 2018
Global stock markets fall on Monday amid inflation fears and rising rates: Reuters
What’s behind Friday’s sharp slide in US stocks? Politico
Powell, to be sworn in today as new Fed chair, faces new economic risks: AP
US employment jumps 200k in January as wage growth accelerates: BI
US Consumer Sentiment Index dips in Jan but still near all-time high: CNBC
Factory orders rise for fifth straight month in December: Reuters
Outgoing Fed chair says Prices `High’ for Stocks, Comm. Real Estate: Bloomberg
PMI survey: Eurozone economic growth nears 12-year high in January: IHS Markit
10-year Treasury yield rises to 2.84%, a four-year high: MarketWatch
Reviewing Last Week’s Stock Market Decline In Historical Context
How bad was last week’s rout in US equities? The slide is the biggest weekly drop for the S&P 500 Index in over two years. But that’s not saying much, given how calm the upside bias for the equity trend has been lately. Perhaps the bigger surprise is that we’ve gone so long without a meaningful setback. But don’t be too quick to dismiss the latest fall from grace as insignificant. A deeper review of the numbers reveals that the S&P’s 3.9% slump over the five trading days through Feb. 2 marks one of the deepest on record for the past six decades-plus.
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Book Bits | 3 February 2018
● The Growth Delusion: Wealth, Poverty, and the Well-Being of Nations
By David Pilling
Review via Kirkus Reviews
“Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell,” the environmental curmudgeon Edward Abbey was fond of saying. One suspects that Financial Times associate editor Pilling would endorse the view, though he puts things less stridently in this studied look at economic growth and its measures and mismeasures. “Economics,” he writes, “can present a distorted view of the world.” True enough, especially because a sine qua non of modern economics is gross domestic product, a calculation of all the things that happen in an economy. But as the author memorably notes, GDP is morally indifferent: it “likes pollution,” because money is spent to clean up environmental messes, and “likes crime because it is fond of large police forces and repairing broken windows.” War and catastrophe? No problem, from a GDP point of view. Pilling examines some of the ways that renegade economists have proposed to consider the true health of an economy, with all the externalities of economic activity taken into account, from various equations to happiness rankings to the Genuine Progress Index, one of the more interesting “measures of economic welfare.”
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US Hiring Rebounds In January But One-Year Trend Eases
Companies in the US added 196,000 workers in January, according to this morning’s report from the Labor Department. The gain beat expectations for a 172,000 increase, according to Econoday.com’s consensus forecast. The stronger print for the private sector isn’t really a surprise, considering the upbeat gain in the ADP Employment Report for January that was released earlier in the week. Today’s results reflect ongoing strength in the labor market, but the annual trend continues to signal that job growth, while still healthy, continues to decelerate.
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Measuring Momentum’s Duration For The US Stock Market
Momentum-based investing strategies may be one of the most reliable drivers of alpha, but like all sources of excess return this factor premium waxes and wanes through time. Accordingly, deciding when to exit the trade (or reduce exposure to it) is no less critical than determining when to jump on the gravy train.
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Macro Briefing: 2 February 2018
Analysts expect firmer job growth in today’s gov’t report for Dec: Reuters
GOP intel memo creates political firestorm in Washington: The Hill
US jobless claims fell to a low 230,000 last week: MarketWatch
US job cuts jump 38% in Jan vs. Dec but slip 2.8% in y-o-y change: CG&C
Severe winter weather pinches US car sales in January: USA Today
ISM Mfg Index for US slips in Jan but remains above 2017 avg: MarketWatch
US Mfg PMI in Jan signals strongest growth in three years: IHS Markit
US productivity ends 2017 with an unexpected decline in Q4: CFO
US workers rank health care as the country’s most critical issue: EBRI