Interactive Brokers (IB) just published the second installment in a series I’m writing for the brokerage firm about using R for portfolio analysis: Modeling Tail Risk In R With Value at Risk. Today’s update (part deux) is more or less adapted from my recent book: Quantitative Investment Portfolio Analytics In R: An Introduction To R For Modeling Portfolio Risk and Return. There’s so much more to say about tail risk beyond VaR, of course, and in due course I’ll explore some of the finer points through an R lens in my IB column. Meantime, you can go deeper down this rabbit hole in Chapter 7: Modeling Tail Risk in Quantitative Investment Portfolio Analytics In R.

Shares of technology and consumer discretionary companies are dominating this year’s horse race for US sector returns, based on a set of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Both slices of the US equity market are neck and neck through yesterday’s close (August 28) for year-to-date performance, posting results that are well ahead of the other sectors.
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Canada joins US-Mexico negotiations on trade: Reuters
Sanders-backed Gillum will face GOP in Florida’s race for governor: Politico
US considers restarting war games on Korean peninsula: Guardian
Russia to hold its biggest war games since WWII: CBS
China’s navy can now challenge the US in the Pacific: NY Times
Brazil to send army to border with Venezuela to “guarantee law and order”: BBC
US Consumer Confidence Index jumped in Aug to highest level since 2000: CNBC
US goods trade deficit widened sharply in July: Reuters
Home-price growth in US continued to slow in June: MarketWatch
US Dollar Index slipped to four-week low on Tuesday:

The flattening yield curve has sparked worries that a new recession is near, but the near-term outlook for growth still looks healthy, based on the latest set of nowcasts for third quarter GDP, as compiled by The Capital Spectator. The median estimate points to a solid 3.3% increase for Q3 output. Although that’s down from the 4.1% advance reported in in the “advance” Q2 report, the current projection suggests that the risk of economic contraction is low for the immediate future.
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Trump says he’s agreed on new trade deal with Mexico: Bloomberg
US-Mexico trade deal isn’t good news for US-China trade negotations: CNBC
World stocks at 6-mo high after US-Mexico trade deal announcement: Reuters
SF Fed research note: yield curve may be signaling rising recession risk: Reuters
US Consumer Confidence: another strong reading expected for Aug: Econoday
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index’s 3mo avg dips, but no recession on near horizon:

Gains in nearly every corner of global markets generated a broad tailwind for the major asset classes last week, based on a set of exchange-traded products. With the exception of US real estate investment trusts (REITs), buyers bid up prices across the board.
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N. Korea criticizes US after Washington cancels trip to Pyongyang: Reuters
US trade war with China appears set to escalate: Bloomberg
Trade war will have bigger impact on debt vs. GDP in China: Bloomberg
Fed Chairman Powell stays focused on gradual rate hikes: CBS
US stocks via S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on Friday: MW
US 10yr-2yr yield spread fell to 19 basis points, another new 11-year low: FX Street
Superstar firms may explain slow wage growth, investment spending: NY Times
Germany has second thoughts about investments from China: SCMP
Headline US durable goods orders fell in July as business investment rose sharply:

Sen. John McCain, a Vietnam War hero, Republican presidential contender, and influential voice in Congress, died yesterday, August 25. As Politico notes, “McCain’s life was like something out of a Hollywood movie script — he was a naval officer and a jet pilot, a war hero and politician. Yet he was ultimately denied the brass ring he most clearly wanted: becoming president of the United States.”
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● Temp: How American Work, American Business, and the American Dream Became Temporary
By Louis Hyman
Q&A with author via Slate
In his new book Temp: How American Work, American Business, and the American Dream Became Temporary, Louis Hyman looks at the reasons behind the temporary nature of so much of the American economy. Eschewing the thesis that companies like Uber are primarily responsible for people working jobs without proper benefits and protections, Hyman examines the changes in American corporate life after the 1950s and 1960s, and why the much-mythologized postwar years were less rosy than we think. At the same time, he explains that the postwar era did offer protections for workers that have lately become much sparser and posits that the challenge going forward is to ensure that Americans keep the flexibility they now seem to want, while simultaneously not being exploited by the companies they work for.
Is this even possible? I recently spoke by phone with Hyman, who is an associate professor of history at the ILR School at Cornell University, to ask.
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The difference in the widely followed spread in 10- and 2-year Treasuries slipped to 21 basis points on Thursday (August 23), marking yet another 11-year low, based on daily data via Treasury.gov. The narrowing gap is stoking debate about whether a new recession is near and the wisdom of what’s expected to be another rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month. Based on current data, however, the economic data continues to reflect a healthy macro trend for the US. The question is whether various risks on the horizon, including a US trade war with China, will delay or even derail the central bank’s plans for higher rates?
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