Macro Briefing: 12 April 2018

West considers Syria attack, which risks confrontation with Russia: Reuters
House Speaker to retire, scrambling GOP plans for mid-term elections: NY Times
Consumer inflation’s annual pace ticks up to one-year high: 2.4%: MarketWatch
Oil jumps to 3-year high on rising Mideast tensions: MarketWatch
Fed: trade-war risk outweighs inflation for setting monetary policy: Bloomberg
Facebook’s Zuckerberg faced tougher questions on 2nd day of testimony: c|net
All Fed policymakers say US economy is strengthening via FOMC minutes: Reuters
US federal deficit widened in first half of fiscal year: WSJ
CBO: US federal budget deficit on track to reach nearly 100% of GDP by 2028: CBO
Business inflation outlook edges up to 2.3% y-o-y, highest since 2011: Atlanta Fed

Is Facebook (And Tech) Having A Standard Oil Moment?

Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg endured five hours of questions in the US Senate on Tuesday, at one point conceding what’s probably inevitable: tighter government oversight of social media in general and his firm in particular. “My position is not that there should be no regulation,” he said, trying to get in front of what appears to be a rising political tide of change. “I think the real question as the internet becomes more important in people’s lives is what is the right regulation.”
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Macro Briefing: 11 April 2018

Trump consider robust military strike against Syria: NY Times
Air traffic control agency warns of possible missile strikes into Syria: Reuters
Russia vetoes US resolution that condemns suspected gas attack in Syria: AP
Trump at crisis point with Mueller investigation: The Hill
China outlines plan for more foreign investment in its financial sector: Reuters
Facebook’s Zukerberg endures 5 hours of Congressional grilling: NY Times
Business groups band together to fight Trump’s trade tariffs: Bloomberg
Wholesale inflation in US increased more than expected in March: Reuters
US wholesale trade inventories surged 1% in Feb, a plus for Q1 GDP: MarketWatch
US small business optimism slips, but still close to record high: MarketWatch
US consumer watchdog agency forgoes enforcement actions under Trump: AP
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate of US Q1 GDP growth slips to 2.0%: Atlanta Fed

Consumer Inflation Expected To Rise Further Over Fed’s 2% Target

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans has been one of the central bank’s doves and so it’s notable that he’s now talking like a hawk, at least on the margins. In a speech on Friday, he said the Fed’s goal of 2% inflation remains on track, which means that “continuing our slow, gradual increases will be appropriate to get us to the point where monetary policy isn’t really providing more lift to the economy.”
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Macro Briefing: 10 April 2018

Trump says US has “a lot of options militarily” for possible Syria strike: Politico
Trump lawyer Cohen under scrutiny for possible bank fraud: WaPo
China’s president discusses plans to further open country’s economy: CNBC
Investors react positive to China president’s economic speech: Bloomberg
GOP tax plan expected to raise growth and boost budget deficit: CNBC
Global debt reached an all-time high of $237 trillion in 2017: IIF
Iran warns that US will “regret” ditching nuclear deal: Reuters
New US sanctions threaten Russia’s ranking as a leading emerging market: FT
GOP tax cuts at federal level triggering wave of tax hikes in US states: Politico
US deficit expected to rise above $1 trillion in 2020: Bloomberg

Macro Briefing: 9 April 2018

Syria, Russia say Israel launched missile strike on Syrian air base Wall St Journal
Hungary’s nationalist prime minister wins third term in power: Reuters
Trump predicts China will blink first in trade dispute with US: Bloomberg
Trump administration officials soften tone on trade dispute with China: WSJ
N. Korea says it will discuss denuclearization: NY Times
Kudlow: White House considering plans to undo parts of spending bill: Wash Exam
US hiring growth slowed sharply in March: Bloomberg
German industrial production fell by the most in over 2 years in Feb: Reuters
Forward curve for 1 month overnight indexed swap rate inverts: Bloomberg
Many US state govts struggling with weak revenue growth: The Economist

Book Bits | 7 April 2018

Last Resort: The Financial Crisis and the Future of Bailouts
By Eric A. Posner
Summary via publisher (University of Chicago Press)
The bailouts during the recent financial crisis enraged the public. They felt unfair—and counterproductive: people who take risks must be allowed to fail. If we reward firms that make irresponsible investments, costing taxpayers billions of dollars, aren’t we encouraging them to continue to act irresponsibly, setting the stage for future crises? And beyond the ethics of it was the question of whether the government even had the authority to bail out failing firms like Bear Stearns and AIG. The answer, according to Eric A. Posner, is no. The federal government freely and frequently violated the law with the bailouts—but it did so in the public interest.
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Spike In Market Volatility Dents Momentum Factor’s Dominance

Momentum-based strategies have led the factor-investing horse race for US equities in recent history, but the latest surge in market volatility may be its undoing. For the trailing 30-day period, the momentum factor’s modest loss leaves it in last place, based on a set of ETFs tracking key US-based factor strategies. By contrast, the best-performing factor strategy for this time window – core small-cap stocks – has managed to post a modest increase.
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