Bull markets have been known to climb a wall of worry. But when does a rising supply of unease become too much to handle?
Continue reading →

First-quarter GDP growth for the US is expected to pick up after a sluggish Q4, according to forecasts from several sources. It’s still early in the quarter, but the preliminary estimates for the kickoff to 2017 anticipate a firmer trend.
Continue reading →

The financial crisis of 2008 devastated portfolios far and wide and brought the global economy to the brink of collapse. It was a disaster, but there was at least one positive outcome from the debacle: a wider recognition that tail risk is a real and present danger that’s forever lurking. The challenge is deciding how to model and manage the risk. You won’t find any easy solutions, but there are practical tools for estimating a portfolio’s vulnerability.
Continue reading →

Prices continued to rise last week in most markets around the world, based on a set of ETFs representing the major asset classes. Leading the winners during the five trading days through Feb. 3: emerging-market bonds. The only losers last week: inflation-indexed US Treasuries and broadly defined commodities.
Continue reading →

● Black Edge: Inside Information, Dirty Money, and the Quest to Bring Down the Most Wanted Man on Wall Street
By Sheelah Kolhatkar
Review via Bloomberg BusinessWeek
Steve Cohen had a target on his back. The government was determined to prove that the hedge fund manager, known on Wall Street for eye-popping annual returns of 30 percent, made some of his billions trading on inside information. Sheelah Kolhatkar, a staff writer at the New Yorker (and a former correspondent for this magazine), has written a fast-paced tale of how the feds worked for almost a decade to build a case against him, and why they couldn’t indict him, in Black Edge: Inside Information, Dirty Money, and the Quest to Bring Down the Most Wanted Man on Wall Street
Continue reading →

Private-sector employment rebounded in January, beating expectations by a wide margin, according to this morning’s release from the US Labor Department. US companies added 237,000 workers last month, the strongest monthly increase since last July and well above December’s modest gain of 165,000.
Continue reading →

The recent decline for the formerly high-flying energy patch has left financial stocks in the lead among US equity sectors for one-year total return, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
Continue reading →

The projected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) was unchanged for a second month in a row in January, holding steady at the highest level in over two years. GMI, an unmanaged market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes, is currently projected to earn an annualized 4.3% over the long term – matching the two previous estimates (here and here).
Continue reading →

Is the labor market re-accelerating? It’s easier to make that case after reading today’s January update of the ADP Employment Report.
Continue reading →

Most markets around the world continued to rise in 2017’s opening month, building on last year’s broadly positive close. Leading the way higher in January: emerging-market stocks (MSCI EM), with foreign high-yield bonds in second place (Markit Global ex-US High Yield). Last month’s bottom performer: US real estate investment trusts via MSCI US REIT, which is unchanged so far this year.
Continue reading →