Tropical storm Nate on track to hit central Gulf Coast: CNN
Hurricanes expected to weigh on today’s US payolls report: Reuters
US factory orders up a solid 1.2% in August: USA Today
Jobless claims in US fall as impact from hurricanes fades: Bloomberg
US job cuts down 26% in September vs. year-earlier level: CG&S
Consumer Comfort Index for US posts biggest decline in a year: Bloomberg
US boom in oil exports on track to continue: CNBC

The Federal Reserve’s narrowest gauge of money supply (measured in real or inflation-adjusted terms) posted a fractional gain in August vs. the year-earlier level – the first positive year-over-year reading since February 2016. The return of annual growth for the monetary base suggests that the central bank may be laying the groundwork to slow or even reverse its recent efforts to tighten policy.
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A new tropical depression/hurricane threatens US Gulf Coast: Miami Herald
Parsing Trump’s short list for the next Fed chair: Bloomberg
Hurricanes weigh on US job growth in ADP’s Sep report: CNBC
ISM Non-Mfg Index for US pops to highest level since 2005: CNBC
US Services PMI for September shows “strong” business activity: IHS Markit
Global economic growth is “broad-based and solid”: IHS Markit

US companies added a relatively soft 135,000 workers in September, a hefty slide from the 228,000 advance in the previous month, according to this morning’s release of the ADP Employment Report.   Looking at the last data point in a vacuum suggests there’s trouble brewing for the economy. But the year-over-year trend suggests otherwise, which is encouraging. All the more so when you consider that the temporary effects of two hurricanes probably played a role in last month’s slowdown in hiring.
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Bismark Bismarck may have been misquoted when he reportedly said “laws are like sausages, it is better not to see them being made.” Whoever is the source, the observation applies to estimating expected returns. The end result is forever in high demand, but the details for generating the numbers can get messy.
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US auto sales in September: best month so far in 2017: Detroit News
Major US stock indexes climb further into record territory: MarketWatch
Warren Buffett and BlackRock’s Larry Fink criticize Trump’s tax plan: Reuters
Spain’s Catalonia problem continues to deteriorate: Reuters
GDPNow estimate for Q3 GDP growth picks up to 2.7%: Atlanta Fed
Wall Street economists expect Q3 GDP growth of 2.6%: CNBC
Is the high CAPE level for US stocks a reason to worry? Maybe not: Bloomberg

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) increased again in September. GMI, an unmanaged, market-value weighted portfolio of the major asset classes, is currently projected to earn an annualized 6.7% (over the “risk-free” rate) in the long run. The estimate marks a sharp gain of 70 basis points over the August forecast.
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Key US stock indexes, including S&P 500, close at record highs: MarketWatch
Five tailwinds could keep stock-market rally humming: Bloomberg
10-year Treasury yield rises to 2.34%–highest since mid-July: StockCharts
Hurricanes expected to temporarily weigh on Friday’s jobs report: Bloomberg
The next Fed chair? Trump leaning toward replacing Yellen: Quartz
US ISM Mfg Index rises to 13-year high in September: Reuters
US Mfg PMI, however, still signals moderate growth for Sep: IHS Markit

The carnage in Las Vegas last night is reportedly the deadliest mass shooting in US history. The current count: at least 50 dead and more than 400 wounded from the shooter. It’s a heartbreaking story, but one with some uplifting points of light during the struggle to survive — and to save others — amid a madman’s hail of bullets. No doubt we’ll learn of many acts of bravery and heroism as this story unfolds. Meantime, here’s one moving example via Reuters that stands out as a reminder that disaster has a habit of clarifying what’s genuinely important:

Mike McGarry, a 53-year-old financial adviser from Philadelphia, was at the concert when he heard hundreds of shots ring out.

“It was crazy – I laid on top of the kids. They’re 20. I‘m 53. I lived a good life,” McGarry said. The back of his shirt bore footmarks, after people ran over him in the panicked crowd.

Stock markets in the developed world delivered the leading performances for the major asset classes in September. The rest of the field posted a mix of modest gains and losses last month. The biggest setback unfolded in foreign government bonds in developed markets.
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