Powered by modest gains last week in US and developed-market stocks, an investable version of the Global Market Index (an unmanaged benchmark that holds all the major asset classes in market-value weights) inched up 0.1% in the first week of March. The benchmark has advanced in every week since late January — the longest run of non-stop weekly gains in more than two years.
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Book Bits | 4 March 2017
● The Complacent Class: The Self-Defeating Quest for the American Dream
By Tyler Cowen
Q&A with author via NPR
In a new book, The Complacent Class, economist Tyler Cowen argues that the United States is standing still. People have grown more risk averse and are reluctant to switch jobs or move to another state, he says, and the desire to innovate — to grow and change — has gone away. In an interview with NPR’s Rachel Martin, Cowen says he’s worried that more and more communities are self-segregating — by income, education or race.
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Fed Officials Talk Up Rate-Hike Odds
Talk may be cheap, but the steady stream of hawkish comments from Fed officials in recent days has convinced the crowd that a rate-hike announcement is likely at the central bank’s monetary policy meeting scheduled for Mar. 14-15.
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Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 March 2017
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) increased sharply in February. GMI, an unmanaged market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes, is currently projected to earn an annualized 4.9% over the long term – well above last month’s 4.3% estimate.
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Major Asset Classes | February 2017 | Performance Review
Higher prices prevailed in most markets around the world in February, with the exception of several flavors of foreign bonds in US dollar terms. Otherwise, the major asset classes were in the black last month, building on January’s across-the-board gains.
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Is The Fed Considering A Rate Hike In March?
A rate hike at next month’s Fed policy meeting is still considered unlikely, but the probability of a surprise is creeping higher, based on Fed funds futures data.
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REITs Rebound And Commodities Slump
US real estate investment trusts (REITs) scored a strong gain last week, posting the biggest return among the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded products. Meantime, broadly defined commodities suffered the biggest loss for the shortened trading week through Feb. 24.
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Book Bits | 25 February 2017
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The Vanishing Middle Class: Prejudice and Power in a Dual Economy
By Peter Temin
Summary via publisher (MIT Press)
The United States is becoming a nation of rich and poor, with few families in the middle. In this book, MIT economist Peter Temin offers an illuminating way to look at the vanishing middle class. Temin argues that American history and politics, particularly slavery and its aftermath, play an important part in the widening gap between rich and poor. Temin employs a well-known, simple model of a dual economy to examine the dynamics of the rich/poor divide in America, and outlines ways to work toward greater equality so that America will no longer have one economy for the rich and one for the poor.
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Trumponomics vs. Economic Forecasts
Economic forecasting that’s largely informed by politics is a treacherous affair, but it may be unavoidable in the current climate. If you’re a Donald Trump supporter there’s a good chance that you’re anticipating stronger US growth. But if you voted for someone else last November, it wouldn’t be surprising to learn that you’re skeptical that a dramatic acceleration in the economic trend is near.
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A Bull Market For Junk Bonds As Interest Rates Rise
Federal Reserve official are considering another interest-rate hike, according to yesterday’s release of minutes for the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 monetary policy meeting. The hawkish tone offers another reason to remain cautious on Treasuries. But while the outlook for bonds generally is challenged as interest drift higher, one corner of fixed-income has been immune: junk bonds.
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