Economists Expect A Moderate Rebound For US Q3 GDP Growth

The US economy is on track to expand at the fastest rate in more than a year in the third quarter, according to projections for this Friday’s “advance” GDP report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. A range of estimates anticipate that quarterly output will top 2% (seasonally adjusted annual rate). If the prediction holds up, output is set to break free of the sluggish pace of roughly 1.0% that’s prevailed in each of the previous three quarters.
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Chicago Fed: US Growth Trend Dips To 4-Month Low In September

The broad US economic trend decelerated in September for a second month in a row, according to today’s update of the three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3). The benchmark dipped to -0.21 last month, the lowest reading since May. The below-zero data indicates that economic activity remains moderately below the historical trend rate, although the rebound in the macro trend since the spring has stumbled in the last two months of the third quarter.
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Book Bits |22 October 2016

● Quantitative Momentum: A Practitioner’s Guide to Building a Momentum-Based Stock Selection System
By Wesley R. Gray and Jack R. Vogel
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
Quantitative Momentum brings momentum investing out of Wall Street and into the hands of individual investors. In his last book, Quantitative Value, author Wes Gray brought systematic value strategy from the hedge funds to the masses; in this book, he does the same for momentum investing, the system that has been shown to beat the market and regularly enriches the coffers of Wall Street’s most sophisticated investors. First, you’ll learn what momentum investing is not: it’s not ‘growth’ investing, nor is it an esoteric academic concept. You may have seen it used for asset allocation, but this book details the ways in which momentum stands on its own as a stock selection strategy, and gives you the expert insight you need to make it work for you. You’ll dig into its behavioral psychology roots, and discover the key tactics that are bringing both institutional and individual investors flocking into the momentum fold.
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Can We Intelligently Estimate Recession Risk?

Media chatter about economic recessions tends to come in three flavors. One is the rarely seen diligent species that considers how the macro trend is evolving currently, and may evolve over the next month or so, based on a diversified set of metrics. Then there’s the long-run forecast that makes a valiant effort to divine the future a year or more in advance. The third alternative, which is by far the most popular flavor, is to zero in on one or two indicators, usually as a prelude to declaring that the end is nigh… any day now. But only one of the three is relatively reliable while the other two can safely be labeled as lighted-hearted diversions bordering on entertainment.
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US Business Cycle Risk Report | 20 October 2016

The US economic trend remained positive through September: strong enough to keep recession risk at a low level but still too soft to fully dismiss concerns about the near-term outlook. Nonetheless, macro momentum has picked up a bit after decelerating earlier in the year—in line with the Capital Spectator’s recent projections (see links below). But as we’ll discuss, the near-term forecasts now point to a stable but relatively muted trend for the immediate future.
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Is Equal Weighting Beneficial For Asset Allocation? Part IV

Equal weighting asset allocation doesn’t look encouraging as a portfolio-design tool, based on last week’s preliminary analysis. Can we salvage equal weighting by expanding the opportunity set with a more granular mix of funds? In a word, no. As we’ll see, equal weighting across asset classes via a wider spectrum of funds doesn’t lead us to a different conclusion.
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