US recession risk continues to fade after running moderately higher in recent months. But a variety of business-cycle metrics have only hinted at trouble without crossing the Rubicon. The main concern was linked to higher market volatility. But the economic data merely wobbled without actually falling down. The lesson, once again, is that mastering the art/science of monitoring and evaluating the business cycle requires a methodology that’s based on a spectrum of data that minimizes the potential for confusing market noise with robust macroeconomic signals.
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● US Labor Mkt Conditions Index rises to 3mo high in Oct | EconoTimes
● Conference Board’s Employ. Trend Index points to “solid job growth” in Oct | CB
● Moody’s still projects sluggish growth for G20 nations | EconoTimes
● Int’l Energy Agency sees oil rising to $80/bbl by 2020 | WSJ
● Low inflation persists in China | Reuters
● French industrial output rises more than expected in Sep | Bloomberg
● Industrial production in Italy rises less than expected in Sep | RTT
● Japan’s Oct Eco Watchers Sentiment Index rises, first time in 3mos | MNI

Equities in emerging markets took the lead last week, delivering the strongest gain among the major asset classes via a set of proxy ETFs. Vanguard Emerging Markets (VWO) popped 1.6% for the week through Nov. 6, edging out the number-two performer: US equities based on Vanguard Total US Stock Market (VTI), which climbed 1.2%.
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● US job growth spikes higher in October | Fortune
● Fed official: rate hike ‘makes sense’ | Reuters
● Will a strong dollar reduce odds for US rate hike? | Bloomberg
● US consumer credit up more than expected in Sep | RTT
● China’s disappointing trade data for Oct | Reuters
● German exports rise more than forecast in Sep | MarketWatch

● Why Minsky Matters: An Introduction to the Work of a Maverick Economist
By L. Randall Wray
Summary via publisher (Princeton University Press)
Perhaps no economist was more vindicated by the global financial crisis than Hyman P. Minsky (1919–96). Although a handful of economists raised alarms as early as 2000, Minsky’s warnings began a half-century earlier, with writings that set out a compelling theory of financial instability. Yet even today he remains largely outside mainstream economics; few people have a good grasp of his writings, and fewer still understand their full importance. Why Minsky Matters makes the maverick economist’s critically valuable insights accessible to general readers for the first time. L. Randall Wray shows that by understanding Minsky we will not only see the next crisis coming but we might be able to act quickly enough to prevent it.
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US private-sector employment rocketed higher in October, the Labor Department reports. Last month’s bigger-than-forecast 268,000 increase is the biggest monthly rise so far in 2015 and dramatically above the soft increases in the previous two months. The gain is strong enough to dispense the first improvement in the annual pace of growth since May. It remains to be seen if the bullish rebound survives future revisions and endures in the months ahead. But for the moment, today’s employment report just gave the Federal Reserve a green light to start rising interest rates.
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Some of the usual suspects were advocating bank failure earlier this week on Bloomberg TV as a policy roadmap for success during economic and financial crises. It’s a convenient recommendation because the idea’s inherent contrarian drama offers a veneer of logic and provides an entertaining talking point for television. Saving bankrupt entities from the laws of free-market gravity, after all, is grounded in economic logic, common sense and a pro-growth agenda. All true… except when it comes to banks. This isn’t open for debate. Banks are different and must be treated differently when the grim reaper is knocking. Hundreds of years of empirical evidence speak loud and clear on this point. Learning from history isn’t on everyone’s agenda, however. But no matter how many times you insist that down is up, the historical record remains unchanged.
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● US jobless claims rise, but remain near historic lows | CBS MoneyWatch
● US Oct job cuts down 14% vs. Sep and 1.3% lower YoY | Challenger, Gray
● US Consumer Comfort Index falls to 7-week low | Bloomberg
● Bank of England expects low rates and inflation to continue | Telegraph
● Economists expect rebound in US Oct job growth | Reuters
● German industrial output slumps in Sep on emg mkt weakness | MNI

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 135,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s October report from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction reflects a modest improvement over the tepid 118,000 gain in September.
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A December interest-rate hike is a “live possibility,” Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said in yesterday’s testimony in Congress. The Treasury market took the hint and the 2-year Note—said to be the most sensitive maturity for rate expectations—jumped to 0.84% yesterday (Nov. 3), edging up to the highest level in nearly six years, based on daily data from Treasury.gov. Since last month’s low on Oct. 14, the 2-year yield has climbed sharply, rising 27 basis points.
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