● The Great Surge: The Ascent of the Developing World
By Steven Radelet
Review via Publishers Weekly
Radelet, economic adviser to the president of Liberia, succeeds in making a possibly counterintuitive argument: notwithstanding the often depressing nature of news coverage of developing countries, this era has seen the most “progress among the global poor in the history of the world.” He has the statistics to back up this claim: for example, between 1990 and 2015, one billion people escaped “extreme poverty.” He cites similar data with respect to hunger and child deaths. Radelet does not contend that suffering has ended by any means, but his accessible and articulate presentation is likely to convince readers that the story of global development is more complex, and positive, than many believe.
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If you were expecting today’s retail sales report for October to deliver a blowout gain in line with the surprisingly strong rise in payrolls for last month, today’s release on consumer spending is a disappointment. It’s not terrible, but the monthly 0.1% advance in retail consumption is below expectations and a sign that it’s still reasonable to keep expectations in check for anticipating a sharp turnaround for the economy overall in the fourth quarter.
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Fed officials are hinting that the odds of December rate hike are edging up. Yesterday’s round of comments from several policymakers still leaves room for debate for deciding if squeezing monetary policy at next month’s FOMC meeting is a done deal. But compared with the remarks in recent months, the public chatter on Thursday had a hawkish tone, if only on the margins.
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● US job openings rise in Sep to 2nd highest level on record | Bloomberg
● Fed officials consider case for US rate hike in Dec | Reuters
● US jobless claims unchanged last week, near 4-decade low | WSJ
● US Consumer Comfort Index edges higher in early Nov | Bloomberg
● Eurozone GDP growth eased to +0.3% in Q3 | Eurostat
● Q3 GDP: German growth moderates, French economy picks up | RTT

In a new article from Institutional Investor—“Market Timing Is Back In The Hunt For Investors”–AQR Capital Management reviews the case for market timing and finds an encouraging track record. Citing the historical record from 1900, AQR’s Cliff Asness and two colleagues outline what is effectively a century-plus backtest of the value and momentum factors. In line with analysis from other researchers, they find that the numbers favor a degree of dynamic portfolio management for adjusting asset allocation through time based on this dual-factor framework. There’s nothing particularly new here, at least for anyone who’s familiar with the research on the topic of tactical asset allocation (TAA) and the related subjects. Nonetheless, this is a worthwhile read if only because it provides a long-run perspective on how the application of value and momentum factors provide a powerful foundation for managing an asset mix through time.
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● US mortgage applications fall as rates rise | CNBC
● ECB President Draghi hints at more stimulus next month | Reuters
● Eurozone industrial output falls again in Sep from Aug | Reuters
● German inflation ticks higher in Oct | MarketWatch
● Consumer inflation edges higher in France in Oct | MNI
● Loan growth in China falls to 15-month low in Oct | Bloomberg

The US stock market has had a rough ride over the last three months. But if you averted your eyes from the volatility that started after Aug. 18 and checked the S&P 500 as of yesterday’s close (Nov. 10) it appeared that nothing much had changed. The fractional loss looks uneventful and so one might wonder what all the fuss was about? There’s been an enormous among of churning in the market since mid-August, but for the moment the dust has settled and from the perspective of the S&P 500 we’re right back where we started.
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● US import prices drop 0.5% in Oct, 4th decline in a row | MarketWatch
● US small business optimism index unchange in Oct | Reuters
● Redbook: US retail sales increase in first week of Nov | WSJ
● China’s industrial production growth falls to 6-mo low in Oct | Telegraph
● Retail spending in China ticks higher to 11% annual rate in Oct | IBT
● UK jobless rate falls to 8-year low in 3 months through Sep | BBC