The long-run expected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) fell in February, sliding to an annualized 7.1% vs. the previous month’s 7.4%. The downward revised forecast follows several months of higher estimates. The analysis is based on three models (defined below) for GMI, a global benchmark built with the major asset classes (excluding cash).
Macro Briefing: 04 March 2025
Major Asset Classes | February 2025 | Performance Review
Most of the major asset classes rallied in February, based on a set of ETFs. The downside exceptions: US stocks and a broad measure of commodities. Otherwise, global markets posted were broadly higher last month.
Macro Briefing: 03 March 2025
Inflation slowed in January, according to Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Prices rose 2.5% for the year through January, down slightly from 2.6% in December, marking the first decrease in four months. Prices “rose at a mild pace in January, which offers some relief after a string of economic reports suggesting that inflation is heating up again,” writes Key Wealth managing director of fixed income investments Rajeev Sharma.
Book Bits: 1 March 2025
● Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare
Edward Fishman
Review via The Wall Street Journal
In “Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare,” Edward Fishman makes clear why this banker so badly underestimated America’s financial power. Deftly written, “Chokepoints” is a compelling and dramatic narrative about the new shape of geopolitics—one in which the U.S. mobilizes its economic and financial pre-eminence for geopolitical objectives, especially in its clashes with China, Iran and Russia. It’s the story of a world economy that has moved from confident globalization to increasing fragmentation and in which economic warfare has become “a baseline feature of our world.”
Economic Slowdown Concerns Top Inflation Worries For Bonds
Sticky inflation risk is still a threat for the bond market, but concern that the US economy is slowing has become the main factor driving Treasury yields lower recently.
Macro Briefing: 28 February 2025
US jobless claims rose more than expected last week, rising to highest level since December. Although the rise leaves claims far below a level that suggests elevated recession risk, some economists see the increase as a sign that the labor market is slowing.
US Sector Leadership Shifts, Favoring Healthcare Stocks
As markets try to look through the blizzard of policy changes flowing out of Washington, the crowd has shifted its preferences considerably in recent weeks based on a sector lens. Using a set of ETFs as proxies, healthcare is now the leading sector performer year to date, taking the lead from financials, based on prices through Wednesday’s close (Feb. 26).
Macro Briefing: 27 February 2025
New US home sales fell sharply in January. “New home sales will continue to struggle with fewer homes coming to market due to tepid buying activity,” says CoreLogic chief economist Selma Hepp. “Even though homebuilders continue to offer buyer incentives, high mortgage rates, mixed with continued price appreciation, keep the eligible pool of homebuyers restricted to higher income individuals.”
Are Markets Rethinking The Prospects For Trump 2.0?
Recent headlines appear to have shaken investor sentiment. It’s premature to read too much into a few days of weaker-than-expected survey numbers. More importantly, the latest data indicate that the economy is still growing, businesses continue to hire, and the near-term outlook for consumer spending remains positive. But the White House would do well to consider the implications of the recent slide in Main Street’s sentiment. The financial markets seem to be doing just that.