The US stock market has witnessed its share of turbulence in recent months, but the jump in price volatility hasn’t dented the leadership role of the health care sector. At the opposite extreme: energy companies continue to dominate the field in the category of downside momentum.
Continue reading →

● US factory orders rise in June–first increase in 3 months
● US small-business borrowing rises to record in June
● Redbook: US retail sales advance in July
● CoreLogic’s US Home Price Index surges 6.5% for year through June
● Eurozone retail sales sharply lower in June
● Gallup’s US Economic Confidence Index falls to 9-month low in July

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 227,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s July update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection is modestly below June’s increase.
Continue reading →

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked up in July, touching a two-month high. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 3.7% over the “risk-free” rate in the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each month, see the summary below). Today’s updated estimate, which is based on data through the close of last month, increased 10 basis points from the previous projection.
Continue reading →

● US personal spending +0.4% and income +0.2% in June
● US auto sales surge 5.3% in July
● ISM: US manufacturing growth ticks down in July
● US construction spending rises by a sluggish 0.1% in June
● Gallup: US consumer spending flat in July

A partial rebound was in play in July after widespread losses dominated the global markets during the previous two months. Notably, last month witnessed a sharp increase in US real estate investment trusts (REITs)–the first increase after three monthly declines. Stock markets in the developed world were mostly higher in July as well. But July was no stranger to selling in some corners, including hefty declines in emerging-market stocks and bonds and a dramatic slide in commodities overall.
Continue reading →

● US employment costs decelerated sharply in Q2
● US consumer sentiment softens more than expected in July
● Puerto Rico misses bond payments over the weekend
● PMI: Eurozone manufacturing output rises “solidly” in July
● PMI: manufacturing decline in China accelerates in July
● Greek stock market crashes on Monday after 5-week shutdown

The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to post a modest increase to 54.3 in tomorrow’s update for July vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction is well above the neutral 50.0 mark and so the current outlook still calls for moderate growth for this benchmark of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector.
Continue reading →

● Unmade in China: The Hidden Truth about China’s Economic Miracle
By Jeremy R. Haft
Summary via publisher (Polity)
If you look carefully at how things are actually made in China – from shirts to toys, apple juice to oil rigs – you see a reality that contradicts every widely-held notion about the world s so-called economic powerhouse. From the inside looking out, China is not a manufacturing juggernaut. It s a Lilliputian. Nor is it a killer of American jobs. It s a huge job creator. Rising China is importing goods from America in such volume that millions of U.S. jobs are sustained through Chinese trade and investment.
Continue reading →

US economic momentum continues to print at a modestly positive level through the end of July, based on a markets-based estimate of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at +5.9% yesterday (July 30). The current level is in the lower range for the past year, although MMRI remains comfortably above zero, which implies that business-cycle risk remains relatively low. A decline below 0% in MMRI would indicate that recession risk is elevated while readings above 0% imply that the economy will expand in the near-term future. Analyzing market-price data in the financial and commodities markets with a probit model also suggests that macro risk is low.
Continue reading →