A partial rebound was in play in July after widespread losses dominated the global markets during the previous two months. Notably, last month witnessed a sharp increase in US real estate investment trusts (REITs)–the first increase after three monthly declines. Stock markets in the developed world were mostly higher in July as well. But July was no stranger to selling in some corners, including hefty declines in emerging-market stocks and bonds and a dramatic slide in commodities overall.
Despite the setbacks in several markets, the Global Market Index (GMI), an unmanaged benchmark that holds all the major asset classes in market-value weights, posted its first monthly gain after slumping in May and June. GMI rose 1.1% in July. Nonetheless, for the year to date GMI’s advance is still modest, rising just 2.2% so far in 2015 through the end of last month.
The soft performance data for GMI of late aligns with the recent downgrades in risk premia forecasts for this benchmark. In last month’s update on looking ahead, for instance, the outlook for GMI’s long-run return remained well below its trailing performance record in recent years.