The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in April, dipping for the second straight month. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 3.7% over the “risk-free” rate for the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each month, see the summary below). Today’s updated estimate, which is based on data through the close of last month, slipped 10 basis points from last month’s 3.8% projection.
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● US Automakers Report Higher Sales In April | RTT
● US ISM manufacturing index flat in April but hiring turns negative | MarketWatch
● Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Rises to Second-Highest Since 2007 | Bloomberg
● US construction spending hits six-month low in March | Reuters
● Eurozone sentiment deteriorates slightly in May: Sentix | Reuters
● Eurozone manufacturing expansion continues in April: PMI | Markit
● China’s mfg. operating conditions deteriorate at strongest rate in a year | Markit
● Germany’s April mfg. output and new orders rise at weaker rates: PMI | Markit
● French mfg. sector remains stuck in contraction during April: PMI | Markit
● PMI shows Italy’s manufacturing sector growing at fastest pace for a year | Markit
● Spain’s manufacturing new order growth accelerates | Markit

Please note that the returns for the Global Market Index (GMI) and its rebalanced version (GMI-R) were overstated in Friday’s monthly update for April 2015. The actual returns are in fact modestly lower. The corrected performance data for GMI and GMI-R are shown below. Apologies for any inconvenience.
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● Pedigree: How Elite Students Get Elite Jobs
By Lauren A. Rivera
Summary via publisher (Princeton University Press)
Americans are taught to believe that upward mobility is possible for anyone who is willing to work hard, regardless of their social status, yet it is often those from affluent backgrounds who land the best jobs. Pedigree takes readers behind the closed doors of top-tier investment banks, consulting firms, and law firms to reveal the truth about who really gets hired for the nation’s highest-paying entry-level jobs, who doesn’t, and why.
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Correction: Please note that the returns for the Global Market Index (GMI) and its rebalanced version (GMI-R) were overstated in an earlier version of the monthly update for April 2015. The actual returns are in fact modestly lower. The corrected performance data for GMI and GMI-R are shown in the table below. The original reference to GMI’s monthly return in the text has been corrected as well. Apologies for any inconvenience.
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● Consumer Spending Ends Sluggish U.S. Quarter on Better Note | Bloomberg
● US Personal income went nowhere in March | Business Insider
● U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level in 15 Years | WSJ
● US labor costs rise solidly; wage growth picks up | Reuters
● Consumer Comfort Index in U.S. Falls to Lowest Level in 6 Weeks | Bloomberg
● PMI: UK Manufacturing Growth Slows Unexpectedly In April | RTT

The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to decline to 50.9 in tomorrow’s update (May 1) for April vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction is still above the neutral 50.0 mark and so the current outlook remains in a state of mild growth for this benchmark of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector.
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Consumer spending perked up last month while disposable personal income (DPI) stagnated in March, according to today’s monthly update from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, the Labor Department reports that initial jobless claims fell significantly more than expected last week, touching a 15-year low and thereby providing a bullish signal for next week’s monthly update on payrolls for April. From the vantage of today’s spending and income numbers, however, the first quarter ended with mixed results.
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The US economy slowed to a standstill in the first quarter, raising fresh questions about the macro outlook. But if the 0.2% gain in GDP in the first three months of this year is a reason to worry, the Federal Reserve prefers to emphasize the positive. The central bank labels the soft Q1 data as a victim of “transitory factors”. In yesterday’s FOMC statement the Fed advised that “although growth in output and employment slowed during the first quarter, the Committee continues to expect that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace.”
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● Analysts Cut Q2 US GDP Forecasts After Weak Q1 Report | Bloomberg
● Fed Sees US Economy Accelerating After Slump in Q1 | Bloomberg
● US Pending Home Sales Climb To Nearly Two-Year High In March | RTT
● US oil hits 5-month high as dollar weakens | Reuters
● Euro zone ends deflation as price change rises to zero | Reuters
● Euro zone lending grows after three years in the red | Reuters
● German unemployment hits 24 year low in April | RTE
● German retail sales in March post biggest drop since Dec 2013 | Reuters
● Japan’s March industrial output falls, but still tops expectations | CNBC