Reviewing the major US equity factors on a year-to-date basis continues to show large-cap growth leading the horse race, based on a set of ETF prices through Friday, July 19. But last week may have been a turning point for the factor laggards, say analysts.
Macro Briefing: 22 July 2024
* US presidential race set to tighten with VP Harris on track to replace Biden
* Stock market’s laggards have sprung to life in recent days as tech stumbles
* People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cuts short-term policy rate
* Tight oil market is set to fade in 2025, predicts Morgan Stanley
* Sovereign wealth funds turning bullish on emerging markets, survey shows:
Book Bits: 20 July 2024
● Tax Alpha Solutions: Effective Tax Management Strategies for High-Net-Worth Investors
Matthew Chancey
Essay by author via WealthManagement.com
The Internal Revenue Service recently announced its plans to significantly increase audits on the wealthiest taxpayers, large corporations and large, complex partnerships for tax year 2026.
Audit rates will rise by more than 50% for those with total positive income over $10 million (up from an 11% coverage rate in 2019 to 16.5% in tax year 2026). That news is sure to trigger anxiety in some high-net-worth earners.
But an IRS audit is more of an exercise that seeks documentation; it’s not necessarily an accusatory event. They just want to see your clients’ homework to show how they got their answers.
Has The Neutral Rate Of Interest Increased?
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to start cutting interest rates at the Sep. 18 FOMC meeting, but the debate is turning to how far the central bank will trim its policy rate once the easing begins? A key part of the answer will be determined by how much the neutral rate has increased, if at all, in recent years.
Macro Briefing: 19 July 2024
* Mass IT outage has causes chaos for businesses around the world
* Key U.S. mortgage rate drops to lowest since March: Freddie Mac
* US leading economic index fell slightly in June
* Manufacturing activity expands in July for Philadelphia Fed region
* US jobless claims rose last week, matching highest level so far in 2024:
Research Review | 18 July 2024 | Artificial Intelligence and Finance
The Finance AI Challenge: An Evaluation of the Top Six Free Web-based AI Models
David Krause (Marquette University)
June 2024
This article evaluates six free web-based AI models-ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, Claude, Perplexity, and Meta AI-in their performance on finance-related tasks. Utilizing a structured approach, we assessed the models’ abilities to handle factual, conceptual, and computational queries, as well as their proficiency in Python coding through a financial case study. Our findings indicate that ChatGPT, Copilot, and Perplexity consistently excelled, particularly in delivering accurate, comprehensive, and well-structured responses. However, challenges such as maintaining context, ensuring factual accuracy, and mitigating biases persist. The study underscores the need for future research to enhance domain adaptation, explainability, and ethical considerations to ensure reliable and responsible use of AI models in finance.
Macro Briefing: 18 July 2024
* Fed Gov. Waller says central bank ‘getting closer’ to an interest rate cut
* US Q2 GDP nowcast revised up to +2.7% vs. 1.4% in Q1 via GDPNow model
* Federal Reserve’s Beige Book suggests economy is slowing
* US industrial production rose more than expected in June
* US housing starts rose in June, but remain near 2-year low:
US GDP Nowcast Reflects Slow Growth For Upcoming Q2 Report
US economic activity is on track to remain slow in this month’s second-quarter GDP report. The expansion is expected to continue via the government’s data, but today’s revised nowcast for Q2 suggests that output will remain more or less comparable to Q1’s modest increase, based on the median estimate for a set of projections compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 17 July 2024
* IMF lowers its 2024 economic growth forecast for US
* A new era for the US dollar may arrive with a Trump-Vance administration
* Trump says, as president, he would let Fed Chair Powell to finish his term
* US homebuilder sentiment falls in July to lowest level since December
* US retail spending was flat in June, but…
* Retail sales ex-autos rise 0.4%, biggest monthly gain since April:
Will A Goldilocks Economy Keep The Stock Market Humming?
If the S&P 500 flatlines from current levels through Dec. 31, 2024, the market would still go into the history books as delivering yet another strong year on the basis of an 18.1% year-to-date rise through Monday (July 15). But the best may be yet to come, some Wall Street firms predict.