* Reviewing the case that the Fed has waited too long to cut rates
* US manufacturers are rethinking hiring plans
* Foreclosures of distressed commercial properties surge
* A review of threats to the boom in artificial intelligence
* PCE inflation ticks down to 2.5% in June vs. year-ago level:
● The Fragility of China: Breaking Points of an Invincible Regime
Dennis Unkovic
Summary via publisher (Encounter Books)
Chinese President Xi Jinping believes his country is destined to displace the United States as the world’s top military and economic power. Every policy that Xi has put forth since assuming power in 2013 has been carefully crafted with this end goal in mind. Nearly four decades of meteoric economic growth have convinced many in the West that modern China is indeed an invincible regime and Xi’s grand plan will come to fruition. Closer examination reveals that China is not invulnerable, but in fact is far more fragile than it outwardly appears. In this book, Dennis Unkovic coins the term MaxTrends® to identify critical factors and developments that have the potential to derail Xi’s aggressive ambitions for China. These MaxTrends® include alarming demographic shifts, cracks in the global supply chain, an accelerating global arms race, and the Taiwan conundrum, all of which indicate that China’s strength may be more illusion than reality.
The recessionistas are now forced to look to the third quarter as the earliest start date for an economic downturn in the US. The odds have been low recently that Q2 would mark the beginning of an NBER-defined contraction and yesterday’s stronger-than-expected rise in output for the April-through-June period seals the deal.
* Big-tech rally at risk if US economy cools, predicts Bank of America analyst
* US credit card delinquency rates rise to 12-year high
* Durable goods orders for US post surprisingly large decline in June
* Apple falls out of top-5 smartphone vendors in China
* US jobless claims fell last week, holding in relatively low range
* US economic growth rises more than expected in Q2:
Two weeks ago I wrote: “US stocks look overbought,” based on a variety of metrics. Fast forward to yesterday’s close for the S&P 500 Index and equities are well below their recent peak. Dumb luck? Maybe, but the better question is whether the latest decline is the start of an extended slide or just a garden variety correction? Alas, no one knows the answer. Indeed, no one ever does. But we can review the basics for developing calculated-risk estimates.
* Is the potential unwinding of Biden’s economic policies an investment risk?
* China cuts interest rates for a second time this week
* John Deere says it’s laying off workers due to agriculture downturn
* New US home sales fell to 7-month low in June
* US business activity growth accelerates in July, driven by services:
It’s a human shortcoming to favor simple explanations for the business cycle. The notion that reliability and timeliness can be forged in one indicator endures, but recent history has hammered this approach, reminds a new commentary from Axios.
* Several widely-monitored recession indicators “don’t work like they used to”
* Trading volume tops $1 billion for debut of ether ETFs
* FTC launches probe into ‘surveillance pricing’ that rapidly changes prices
* Eurozone business activity is nearly at standstill in July: PMI survey
* US existing home sales fell for fourth month in June:
US economic activity is on track to post a modestly firmer growth rate for the second quarter GDP report scheduled for release on Thursday, July 25. The estimate is based on the median estimate for a set of projections compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
* Harris secures enough delegates to become Democratic party’s nominee
* US regulator finds weak risk management at over half of major banks
* Cyber-security startup Wiz rejects Google’s $23 billion acquisition offer
* Ethereum ETFs approved by SEC set to start trading
* US economic growth shows signs of stabilizing in June:
