The US labor market hit a rather large speed bump in March, decelerating to the slowest pace of growth since Dec. 2013, the Labor Department reports. Companies added a sluggish 129,000 jobs last month, far below the 240,000 gain that economists predicted via Econoday.com’s consensus forecast and the revised 264,000 gain for February.
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● US Jobless claims fall 20,000 to 268,000, near post-recession low | MarketWatch
● The pace of US job cuts slows significantly in March | Challenger
● US factory orders rise in Feb, breaking 6-mo losing streat | USN&WR
● Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP forecast for US falls to 0% | Atlanta Fed
● US Mortgage Rates Steady As Spring Buying Season Starts | RTT
● China’s services sector expands in March, job growth at 10-mth low | Reuters

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 256,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s March update from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The monthly prediction reflects a substantial deceleration in growth vs. the 288,000 gain in February.
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Today’s update on new filings for unemployment benefits in the US provides upbeat news in the wake of yesterday’s disappointing release on private payrolls for March via the ADP Employment Report. Whereas the ADP data point to a slowdown in the labor market’s growth rate, today’s initial jobless claims figures suggest the opposite. Indeed, claims unexpectedly fell a hefty 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 268,000 for the week through Mar. 28 — close to a post-recession low. If there’s trouble brewing in the labor market, there’s no sign of it in today’s claims data.
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The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) slipped in the March estimate. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 3.8% over the “risk-free” rate for the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each month, see the summary below). Today’s updated estimate, which is based on data through the close of last month, dipped 20 basis points from the previous month’s 4.0% projection.
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● ADP: US job growth in private sector slows sharply in March | LA Times
● US construction spending slips for 2nd month in Feb | Housingwire
● Doubts over US growth cool dollar rally | Reuters
● ISM: US Mfg Growth in March at Slowest Rate in Nearly 2 Years | IW
● PMI: Sharpest improvement in US mfg conditions in March for 5 months | Markit
● US Auto Sales Slow After Months of Healthy Growth | NY Times
● US mortgage applications surge on spring demand in late-March | CNBC
● PMI: Global manufacturing expands at modest pace in March | Markit

Private-sector job creation last month slowed more than economists predicted, according to this morning’s release of the ADP Employment Report. The crowd was looking for a monthly rise of 230,000, according to Econoday.com’s consensus forecast. Instead, US companies hired a relatively soft 189,000 workers in March. The latest numbers pour cold water on the idea that the US economy is accelerating, although the year-over-year trend is still strong enough to support the outlook for moderate growth.
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March was a rough month for earning a profit in the global markets. The bulk of the gains (in US dollar terms) in the major asset classes were limited to US bonds and US real estate investment trusts (REITs), which rebounded after a sharp tumble in February. In fact, US REITs (MSCI REIT Index) led the field in March, posting a 1.8% total return. Otherwise, red ink prevailed.
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● March consumer confidence rises sharply: Conference Board | CNBC
● US home prices rise 4.6% On Year Through Jan: S&P Case-Shiller Index | Reuters
● US March Store Sales +1.2% vs Feb Through Mar 28 Week: Redbook Index | MNI
● PMI: Euro-Area Mfg Growth Revised Higher on German Boost | Bloomberg
● PMI: China’s Factories Gain in March, But Still Weak | WSJ
● UK Factory Growth At 8-month High | RTT
● Why are interest rates so low, part 2: Secular stagnation | Ben Bernanke

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 213,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s March update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The median projection represents an incrementally higher increase vs. February’s rise.
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