● US jobless claims data point to strengthening labor market | Reuters
● US Consumer Comfort Index Climbs to Highest Level Since 2007 | Bloomberg
● French industrial production flat, but beats views | MarketWatch
● UK Industrial Output Rises For First Time In 3 Months | RTT
● Spain’s Industrial Output Growth Accelerates | RTT
● Emerging market stocks look more resilient to a Fed rate hike | Reuters

Morningstar yesterday wondered if emerging markets are a buy? A number of money managers seem to think so, based on decisions to overweight this slice of the global equity pie. Some strategists have been recommending emerging markets (EM) as a value play for months. The results to date have been disappointing, although the recent pop in widely held ETFs in this space hint at the potential for something better in the months (years?) ahead.
Continue reading →

● Fed minutes: Don’t expect a summer interest rate hike | Fortune
● Eurozone Retail Sales In Feb Fall After Four Straight Monthly Rises | WSJ
● German February Industrial Output, Exports Recover | RTT
● China’s Q1 economic growth seen at 6-year low of 7% | Reuters
● Bank Of France Revises Up Q1 Growth Estimate To 0.4% | RTT
● Switzerland: first country to sell 10-year debt at negative yield | Telegraph

Warren Buffett last week said that US stocks “might be a little on the high side now, but they’ve not gone into bubble territory.” But the Oracle of Omaha added the standard caveat that “it’s always easier to identify [bubbles] in retrospect.” Does that mean we should refrain from trying to estimate bubble risk in real time? Perhaps, although the devil’s in the details. How you define and look for bubbles are critical factors. Assuming that we”re willing and able to read the data in a comparatively objective manner, searching for bubbles can be productive. But in order to pass the smell test this process should be part of a healthy and diversified risk-management regimen that unfolds in the context of a relatively objective framework. That’s a fairly high bar, but let’s give it a try, if only as an academic exercise.
Continue reading →

● US job openings rise to 14-year high | CNBC
● US Consumer Credit Climbs More Than Expected In Feb | RTT
● PMI: Global economic growth accelerates to 6-month high | Markit
● Eurozone retail PMI climbs to 4-month high | Markit
● Eurozone Feb retail sales up as expected from year earlier | Reuters
● PMI: Emerging market growth remains muted | Markit
● German Factory Orders Drop for Second Month | Bloomberg

The US labor market suffered a sharp deceleration in growth in March, but yesterday’s economic releases suggest that last month’s stumble may be a temporary setback rather than the start of deeper troubles that linger. Monday’s updates certainly paint a picture of an economy that’s still expanding at a brisk pace in the services sector, including payrolls.
Continue reading →

● Fed’s labor-markets conditions index slows in February | MarketWatch
● Conference Board’s US Employment Trends Index Edged Down in March | CB
● US services sector growth slows a bit; executives still upbeat | Biz Journals
● PMI: Sharpest increase in US services sector output since Aug 2014 | Markit
● PMI: Eurozone growth improved in March | Markit

Friday’s disappointing news for US payrolls in March — the smallest gain in more than a year — has launched a new debate about the economy’s strength. It’s premature to assume too much from the latest monthly change, in part because year-over-year growth in payrolls is still robust, as I discussed last week. Nonetheless, the crowd (and the Fed) will be considerably more sensitive to incoming data in the search for fresh clues about what, if anything, the latest payrolls numbers mean for adjusting the near-term outlook. One market-based measure that’s worthy of monitoring for this task: the  term-premium adjusted real (inflation-adjusted) yield for the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note.
Continue reading →

● 5 reasons the U.S. economy isn’t catching fire | DMN
● The trend in corporate profits in America is worrying | The Economist
● Asia up after dismal U.S. jobs data, dollar pressured | Reuters
● Oil rebounds as Iran exports seen taking months to ramp up | MarketWatch
● Japan Leading Index Falls Less Than Expected In February | RTT

● Beat the Crowd: How You Can Out-Invest the Herd by Thinking Differently
By Kenneth L. Fisher with Elisabeth Dellinger
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
Beat the Crowd is the real contrarian’s guide to investing, with comprehensive explanations of how a true contrarian investor thinks and acts – and why it works more often than not. Bestselling author Ken Fisher breaks down the myths and cuts through the noise to present a clear, unvarnished view of timeless market realities, and the ways in which a contrarian approach to investing will outsmart the herd. In true Ken Fisher style, the book explains why the crowd often goes astray—and how you can stay on track. Contrarians understand how headlines really affect the market and which noise and fads they should tune out. Beat the Crowd is a primer to the contrarian strategy, teaching readers simple tricks to think differently and get it right more often than not.
Continue reading →