Brett Scott, an ex-derivatives broker who now blogs at Suitpossum, asks: “What are the 100 Top (Anglo-Saxon) Finance Blogs?” His answer (in the form of a “Pseudo-Scientific Study”) includes the digital explorations of yours truly (I’m honored), along with a wide array of sites ranging from the popular to the relatively obscure. It’s always fun to dig through these lists to discover new blogs and find an excuse to reconnect with familiar sites that, for one reason or another, have fallen off the radar. One intriguing blog on the list that caught my eye, and somehow managed to elude your editor until now: The Research Puzzle.
US Retail Sales: Dec 2012 Preview
Tomorrow’s report on retail sales for December (8:30am eastern) is projected to show a 0.3% gain for the month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. That’s slightly higher than the 0.2% consensus forecast from several surveys of economists. In November, retail sales rose 0.3%, the government reported last month.
Book Bits | 1.12.13
● Successful Investing Is a Process: Structuring Efficient Portfolios for Outperformance
By Jacques Lussier
Summary via publisher, Wiley
What do you pay for when you hire a portfolio manager? Is it his or her unique experience and expertise, a set of specialized analytical skills possessed by only a few? The truth, according to industry insider Jacques Lussier, is that, despite their often grandiose claims, most successful investment managers, themselves, can’t properly explain their successes. In this book Lussier argues convincingly that most of the gains achieved by professional portfolio managers can be accounted for not by special knowledge or arcane analytical methodologies, but proper portfolio management processes whether they are aware of this or not. More importantly, Lussier lays out a formal process-oriented approach proven to consistently garner most of the excess gains generated by traditional analysis-intensive approaches, but at a fraction of the cost since it could be fully implemented internally.
It’s Official: US November Sales Increased Across The Board
Some analysts have been predicting a collapse in sales for the US economy. One prominent economist announced in a recent round of TV interviews that sales generally were in the process of “rolling over.” On that assumption, the economy is in recession, he explained. But a funny thing happened on the way to the collapse: sales have held up, and even turned up. Yesterday’s November update on wholesale trade figures is the latest data point that contradicts the pessimistic view on the macro trend.
Jobless Claims Increased Slightly Last Week, But The Trend Remains Encouraging
Today’s weekly update on jobless claims is a good example of how the inherent noise in this data series can mislead us if we’re overly focused on the most recent data points. New filings for jobless benefits rose 4,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 371,000, pushing claims up to the highest level in a month. The rise is a modest surprise relative to expectations, which projected a slight decline, although the previous week’s total was revised down and so the net effect is close to neutral. In any case, today’s numbers look a bit discouraging, but a deeper review paints a substantially brighter picture.
Context Is (Still) King For Portfolio Design & Management
It happened again. I was reading a story about the apparent hazards that are expected to derail an asset class that’s in my portfolio and I thought, gee, I better sell. The article presented a strong case for seeing red in the near future. But then I remembered that the asset class is just one piece of my diversified portfolio, and that my rebalancing strategy will take care of any extremes in the various components. Thinking about the big picture for my personal asset allocation reminded me that the article wasn’t all that applicable to my situation after all. Once again, my initial emotional reaction turned out to be not so helpful after all in money matters.
Weekly Jobless Claims: 5 January 2013 Preview
Tomorrow’s weekly update on jobless claims is expected to report a modest decline from the previous estimate, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. New claims are projected to slip 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 367,000 for the week through January 5. That’s roughly in line with consensus forecasts via surveys of economists.
Mediocrity Strikes Again
It’s true for stocks, it’s true for bonds—yes, it’s even true for hedge funds. As The Economist reminds, delivering market-beating performance over time relative to a conventional asset mix is tough, and the financial wizards in the land of hedge funds aren’t immune. “A simple-minded investment portfolio—60% of it in shares and the rest in sovereign bonds—has delivered returns of more than 90% over the past decade, compared with a meagre 17% after fees for hedge funds,” the magazine reports. Sound familiar?
U.S. Economic Profile | 1.08.13
The US economy continued to grow in December. That’s the message from the incoming numbers for last month, echoing the analysis from our previous update a month ago. Although several key reports for December are still missing, the numbers published so far suggest that the economy ended 2012 on an upbeat note. Anything’s possible, of course, when it comes to yet-to-be published and revised indicators. But the early analysis of the December economic profile tells us that the odds remain low that the end of last year will mark the start of a new recession.
Q4:2012 US GDP Nowcast Update | 1.07.2013
The US economy is expected to grow 1.6% in 2012’s fourth quarter, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric nowcast. That’s up slightly from the previous 1.5% nowcast, published on December 17. The current outlook for 1.6% growth looks sluggish when compared with the 3.1% rise for Q3, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The official Q4 data is scheduled for release on January 30, when the BEA will publish its initial GDP estimate for the last three months of 2012. (GDP percentage changes are quoted as real seasonally adjusted annual rates.)