Job creation rolls on, today’s ADP Employment Report advises. The preliminary update for November shows a net gain of 206,000 private sector jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. That’s the highest monthly advance for this series since December 2010. If there’s a recession brewing in the U.S., it’s not obvious in these numbers.
Stressed Out & Up
To say that the global economy is stressed is to state the obvious these days. The potential for implosion in one of the world’s major currencies is no trivial development. The great mystery is whether the rising stress on the system will unleash a new recession. That looks like a done deal in Europe by some accounts, although there’s still a lively debate about where the U.S. economy is headed. This much, however, is clear: the financial system is under pressure and so the threat of an economic contraction in the U.S. is higher these days. But tipping points are only obvious in hindsight, particularly during delicate periods such as the one currently blowing through the global economy.
Will October’s Economic Momentum Last?
Consumer confidence rebounded strongly in November, the Conference Board reports. David Semmens, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank, opines that “the improvement in the labor market must be offering greater comfort to consumers.” The question, of course, is whether the labor market’s “improvement” can survive the sentiment attack blowing through the global economy via the euro crisis. Today’s rise in the Conference Board’s consumer benchmark provides fresh encouragement for thinking positively, but this is still mostly guesswork until the major economic reports for November arrive. For the moment, it’s still a blank slate.
Euro Explanations
The euro crisis is a tragedy—or a farce? Whatever it is, it’s bit less so today, or one could reason by way of today’s rally in U.S. stocks. But how did we get here? Everyone has an opinion.
Tactical ETF Review: 11.28.2011
The capital markets and the global economy are caught between the rock and the hard place. Misguided policy choices in Europe and deadlocked budget negotiations in Washington are threatening to crush the meager economic growth in the developed world. The toxic environment is starting to infect emerging markets too. For contrarian investors with a long-term view, the possibilities may be looking up. But earning higher risk premiums than the crowd isn’t going to come easily. Turbulence looks like a safe bet for the near term, and perhaps longer. Everything else is open for debate as the world sorts through the mystery of how we get from here to there without (hopefully) shooting ourselves in the head. The thankless job of discounting the unknown unknowns is now job one. The blunt response is now roiling markets, as you’ll see in the following review of the major asset classes via our usual list of ETF proxies…
Book Bits For Saturday: 11.26.2011
● Zombie Banks: How Broken Banks and Debtor Nations Are Crippling the Global Economy
By Yalman Onaran
Q&A with author via PLFNews
Everyone is afraid that the world economy is about to go into a second recession. Why are we heading in that direction?
That’s because we haven’t fixed the problems that had caused the one in 2008. Leaders in the U.S. and Europe patched up the troubled spots, printed lots of money and avoided the underlying issues. Especially the banking system, which blew up to bring the world economy down a few years ago, is still fragile, too wounded to support a recovery and filled with even more risk. That’s why I call the banks zombies. They will make the next blowup more spectacular.
Playing With Fire
The only thing worse than an economy headed for a recession is an economy headed for recession with rising interest rates. That appears to be Europe’s fate, and it’s a fate that increasingly looks like a self-inflicted wound. The stakes could hardly be higher. The blowback from Europe threaten the feeble growth in the U.S., which in turn carries dire implications for the global economy, starting with China. But, hey, the political “leadership” in Germany, which in many ways is directing this horror show, doesn’t see any reason to change its plans.
Let’s Talk Turkey
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. As a brief interlude from the usual fare, here are some worthy passages to promote the holiday spirit. Enjoy. All the best to you and yours!
The Desolate Wilderness
Thanksgiving’s history goes beyond 1621
History of Thanksgiving and Its Customs
The First Thanksgiving at Plymouth
Five Little-Known Thanksgiving Facts
A Mixed Bag Of Economic News For October
Because of the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow, the government released three major economic reports today: income & spending, initial jobless claims, and new orders for durable goods. Overall, the numbers show an economy that continues to struggle. There’s just enough growth in the latest data points to keep the debate open about what happens next, but the macro trend still looks precarious no matter how you spin the numbers.
Research Review | 11.23.2011 | Managing Asset Allocation
Testing Rebalancing Strategies for Stock-Bond Portfolios: Where is the Value Added of a Rebalancing Strategy?
Hubert Dichtl (Alpha Portfolio Advisors), et al. | September 15, 2011
This study addresses the question why institutional investors prefer rebalancing even though these strategies require the selling of a fraction of the better-performing assets and investing the proceeds in the less-performing assets. Analyzing the value added of rebalancing strategies for investors, we document that the return effect is negligible, and hence it is primarily a risk management argument which justifies the widespread use of these strategies. Minimizing risk (defined as return volatility) with respect to a given asset allocation seems to be the primary objective of any rebalancing strategy.