* Biden convenes national security team amid fears of Iran attack on Israel
* US economy is starting to look “pre-recessionary”: Krugman
* Will the Fed announce an emergency rate cut? Unlikely, predict analysts, history
* ISM Services Index rebounds in July, showing key US sector strengthening
* Global economic growth eases for second month in July via PMI survey data
* US output expands “solidly” in July via Composite PMI Index, a GDP proxy:
The selling that roiled global markets late last week looks set to continue on Monday. Triggered by weaker-than-expected news for the US labor market, the surge in risk-off sentiment took a bite out of the high-flying market for American shares. But even after last week’s hit, US equities are still leading the major asset classes by a wide margin. In the current climate, however, that premium suggests US shares are still vulnerable to a period of “normalizing” performance comparisons.
* Does a surprising rise in unemployment signal a recession?
* Economist says Fed waited too long to cut interest rates
* Growth in China’s services activity strengthened in July
* Eurozone economy “stalls” in July via PMI survey data
* US 10-year yield fell sharply last week, settling at 3.79%–lowest since December:
● Demography and the Making of the Modern World: Public Policies and Demographic Forces
John Rennie Short
Summary via publisher (Agenda Publishing via Columbia U. Press)
John Rennie Short critically explores the implications of demographic change from a social and economic perspective and considers what this means for public policy. He shows how events as varied and important as the Arab Spring, migration from Africa to Europe, budget negotiations in the United States, and economic growth in India and Brazil – all seemingly diverse issues from around the world – are shaped by forces of demography. Using the demographic transition model as a framework, the book examines the demographic forces that underlie major social and economic issues, and in particular, the range of public policies that have been developed, adopted and rejected to meet these population challenges.
The total return outlook for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in July, marking the first downshift in several months for this forecast. GMI’s long-term estimate now points to an annualized 7.0% performance, down slightly from the previous month, based on the average of three models (defined below). GMI is an unmanaged benchmark that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) according to market weights via a set of ETF proxies.
* US jobless claims rise to one-high year
* Wage growth in US for Q2 eased to slowest pace in 3-1/2 years
* US light-vehicle sales rebounded modestly in July
* Construction spending in the US fell for second month in June
* ISM Mfg Index dips in July, signaling ongoing sector contraction:
US real estate investment trusts led a widespread rally in July for the major asset classes. The only laggard: commodities, which fell last month. Otherwise, global markets rallied across the broad for the start to the third quarter, based on a set of ETF proxies.
Year-to-date returns for US fixed income are skewing positive this year ahead of the Federal Reserve policy announcement this afternoon. Although the central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged today, markets are pricing in a September cut and much the US fixed-income market is all-in on anticipating that outcome.
* Hamas leader killed in Iran in alleged Israeli strike, threatening escalation
* Japan raises interest rates as it unwinds long-running easy policy
* Fed expected to leave rates unchanged today
* US consumer confidence remains middling in July vs. recent history
* US home prices reach a new record high: Case-Shiller Home Price Index
* US job openings edge down in June, reaffirming ongoing downtrend:
