Daily Archives: Apr 2, 2019 at 06:33 am EST

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 April 2019

The projected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher again in March, edging up to an annualized 4.7% return. The fractional gain lifted the outlook above the 4.6% estimate in last month’s update. Today’s revision for GMI (an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes except cash) reflects the ex ante premium over the projected “risk-free” rate for the long term.
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Macro Briefing: 2 April 2019

Trump appears to be edging closer to closing US-Mexico border: CNN
S&P 500 rally lifts index to 2% below its all-time peak: CNBC
US-EU trade talks look set for delay: Bloomberg
Another Brexit vote fails in UK Parliament: BBC
New policies in Mexico a factor in migrant surge from Central America: NY Times
Global Mfg PMI unchanged in March, indicating ‘weak’ growth rate: IHS Markit
Mixed messages: US Mfg PMI fell to  lowest since 2017 as ISM Mfg up to 9mo high
US construction spending rose in Feb, posting 3rd monthly gain: MW
Sign of slowing demand? Business inventories rose more than sales in US: Reuters
US retail sales post surprise decline in Feb, contributing to subdued 1yr trend: