Daily Archives: Dec 3, 2020 at 07:13 am EST

Does The Return Of The Reflation Trade Have Legs?

The Treasury market’s inflation forecast broke above its pre-pandemic high this week, fueling speculation that a new era of firmer pricing pressure is dawning. Maybe, but there are still good reasons to remain cautious before declaring that inflation is at a critical turning point. There’s a case for reviving the pre-pandemic outlook for roughly 2% inflation, but expecting a substantially hotter run still relies heavily on guesswork and dismissing the secular trends — an aging demographic, disinflationary pressure via technology, and other factors — that have prevailed over the past 20 years.
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Macro Briefing: 3 December 2020

Negotiations in Congress continue for coronavirus-stimulus bill: WSJ
US posts record number of Covid-19 hospitalizations: BBC
Americans face ‘rough’ winter due to surging coronavirus, CDC chief warns: RTRS
House passes bill that may delist Chinese firms from US stock exchanges: CNBC
China services sector growth accelerated in November: RTRS
Eurozone economic activity contracted in Nov, PMI survey data shows: IHSM
UK economic activity contracted in Nov via PMI survey data: BBG
Survey: economic fear rises sharply among Republicans after election: NYT
Fed Beige Book: US economic rebound gathered momentum recently: WSJ
US companies hired fewer workers than expected in November: BBG