Author Archives: James Picerno

Macro Briefing: 25 September 2020

US officials try to assure public that vaccine will be safe: CNBC
NY state will review coronavirus any vaccines approved by Feds: Reuters
European Union to appeal ruling in favor of Apple in $15 billion tax battle: CNBC
GOP and Dems still trying to reach agreement on new stimulus bill: BBG
House Democrats preparing new, smaller coronavirus relief package: CNBC
Is US policy repeating mistakes in 2009’s economic stimulus? NYT
Investors warily eye prospects for US election: MW
Sales of newly built US homes rose to 14-year high in August: MW
US jobless claims continue to surge–up 870,000 last week: CNBC

An Election Like No Other?

US presidential elections always come with a certain amount of risk since the potential for the transfer of power from one party to another introduces a degree of uncertainty on a range of economic and geopolitical issues. But this year’s Nov. 3 contest promises (threatens) to be unusual for all the wrong reasons.

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Macro Briefing: 24 September 2020

J&J vaccine moves to final clinical trials: NYT
New stimulus bill before election looks unlikely: CNN
Republicans move ahead to confirm Supreme Court nominee: WSJ
Fauci tells Congress a US vaccine could be available as early as April: CNBC
California to phase out sales of gasoline-engine cars by 2035: NPR
Trump refuses to commit to peaceful transfer of power in election: BBC
Eurozone growth slows to a crawl in September: IHS Markit
UK growth ‘loses momentum’ in September: IHS Markit
Japan’s economy remains in recession in September: IHS Markit
PMI survey data: US economic rebound continues in September: IHS Markit

The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 23 September 2020

US Stocks Flirting With Fourth Weekly Decline: It’s only Wednesday, Sep. 23, but the downside bias for US equities is building. At today’s close, Vanguard Total US Stock Market (VTI) shed 2.6% for the week so far. Today’s sharp pullback more than reverses two days of moderate gains and so it doesn’t take a raging bear to imagine that VTI is flirting with its first run of four straight weekly declines in more than a year.

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Macro Briefing: 23 September 2020

House passes legislation to avoid government shutdown: CBS
Wisconsin declares state of emergency as Covid-19 cases spread on colleges: ABC
Coronavirus’s rebound is weighing on the global services sector: WSJ
Eurozone growth slows to a crawl in Sep, PMI survey data shows: IHS Markit
UK’s economic recovery hits setback in Sep as output slows: IHS Markit
Japan’s recession continues in September, PMI survey data suggests: IHS Markit
Growth picked up in Richmond Fed Mfg Index for September: RF
US existing home sales rose to 14-year high in August: CNBC

Macro Briefing: 22 September 2020

Trump expected to name Supreme Court nominee by Saturday: Reuters
McConnell: Senate may hold Supreme Court vote before election: BBG
Fed’s Powell: US economy improving but faces ‘highly uncertain’ recovery: BBG
Obamacare may be toast after Ginsburg’s death: HP
China’s recovery may be key marginal driver of global GDP: CNBC
China compiling blacklist of US companies to punish tech firms: WSJ
Different paths on climate change for Big Oil in Europe vs. US: NYT
Chicago Fed Nat’l Index: Growth slowed in Aug but remained above average: AP