It’s not falling, but neither is it rising. Initial claims for unemployment insurance are more or less treading water relative to recent history.

This morning’s update from the Labor Department reveals that new filings for jobless benefits dropped by 20,000 for the week through November 4 from the previous week, on a seasonally adjusted basis. To put that in perspective, the 308,000 who filed for unemployment last week total slightly less than the weekly average stretching back over the past 10 weeks.
One implication: the economy’s not poised to fall into recession any time soon. Then again, growth doesn’t look set for a fresh burst either, based recent data from other corners of the economy. Of course, one can’t draw too many (if any) conclusions from one data series. In fact, prudence dictates to draw no conclusions for the moment until clearer signs emerge.
The bond market seems to be doing just that. After the yield on the 10-year Treasury consistently fell from July through September, tread water has become fashionable. The 10-year’s yield was 4.63% at yesterday’s close. Although the yield’s had a bit of a ride up and down over the past month or so, not much has changed since the bond bull market ran out of steam in mid-September.
Yes, we know that the economy’s slowing, based on recent data. But it’s not yet obvious how much it’s slowing, or how deeply. Finding an answer to that question will take time, and our guess is that we’ll all be celebrating New Year’s without much more concrete insight than we have here and now.
And so, absent extraordinary new economic numbers, the next few months could end up being a lot of light and heat without much new information. With the Democratic transition in Congress underway, all eyes are on what awaits in Washington for 2007. But the fun won’t start until February at the earliest.
Meanwhile, there’s plenty of economic data to pore over. Just don’t confuse new numbers with new information, at least not yet. Nap time anyone?